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<p>We analyzed the Arctic atmosphere-sea ice-ocean relationships to reveal their intrinsic connections and the roles of the sea surface temperature (SST) and surface air temperature (SAT) on the interannual variations and trends of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in July to October during 1951 to 2021. Both SST and SAT have notable impacts on Arctic SIC. SST exhibits statistically significant influences on Arctic SIC at both interannual and decadal time scales, whereas the influence of SAT is statistically significant primarily at the interannual time scale. Within the interannual variability, SST is the dominant contributor, explaining about 53% of the detrended variance, while SAT accounts for about 35%. In addition, SAT affects SIC trends with a seven-month lead time, which is due to the much stronger warming trend in winter than summer. SIC trends will continue to decline in the future as SAT and SST continue to rise.</p>

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Effects of sea surface and air temperatures on inter-annual variations and trends of Arctic sea ice concentration in summer and autumn

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月14日

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  • Qizhen Sun,
  • Di Chen,
  • Hui Shen,
  • Zhuoming Ding

摘要

We analyzed the Arctic atmosphere-sea ice-ocean relationships to reveal their intrinsic connections and the roles of the sea surface temperature (SST) and surface air temperature (SAT) on the interannual variations and trends of Arctic sea ice concentration (SIC) in July to October during 1951 to 2021. Both SST and SAT have notable impacts on Arctic SIC. SST exhibits statistically significant influences on Arctic SIC at both interannual and decadal time scales, whereas the influence of SAT is statistically significant primarily at the interannual time scale. Within the interannual variability, SST is the dominant contributor, explaining about 53% of the detrended variance, while SAT accounts for about 35%. In addition, SAT affects SIC trends with a seven-month lead time, which is due to the much stronger warming trend in winter than summer. SIC trends will continue to decline in the future as SAT and SST continue to rise.