Multiple atmospheric drivers linked to the sea ice export out of the Arctic Ocean
摘要
The sea ice export via the Fram Strait represents an important branch of Arctic freshwater into North Atlantic Ocean. Many diverse climate sources have been linked to ice export variations. However, the synthetic contribution of multiple large-scale atmospheric circulation sources to the ice export remains uncertain. Regressed results suggest a robust relationship between monthly sea ice export and the different circulation indices in all seasons, with a significant multi-regressed correlation of 0.65, 0.66, 0.51, and 0.58 in winter, spring, summer, and autumn, respectively. Moreover, the integrated contribution of different circulation drivers to sea ice export is investigated for each season. In winter, the combined pressure fields in the positive phase in sea level pressure gradient (SLPG) across the strait and Arctic Oscillation (AO) (i.e., SLPG+ and AO+) would act together to trigger the largest ice export in winter (91.4 × 103 km2/month). In summer, the anomalous high export (35.1 × 103 km2/month) is observed during SLPG+ along with the positive phase of Dipole Anomaly (DA+). In autumn, a teleconnection to the mid-latitude oceanic-state phase is found, where the contribution of atmospheric circulation to ice export due to merged effects of AO+, DA+, and SLPG+ is likely intensified by the co-occurrence of the positive phase of Atlantic multidecadal Oscillation (AMO+) and negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO−), producing an above-average export of 73.2 × 103 km2/month. Again, the notable changes in terms of 10-a running correlation and multidecadal correlation between the two periods 1979–1999 and 2000–2021 highlight the importance to investigate the different atmospheric sources and their integrated effects on sea ice export. The relationship identified in this work has the potential to increase skill in the predictability of the sea ice export in different timescales.