<p>This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the wave energy characteristics of the South China Sea (SCS) for 2015–2100 based on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios denoted SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, representing the low, medium, high future forcing pathways proposed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Averages and trends of selected wave energy parameters under the three future scenarios were analyzed and compared. These parameters are recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification (62 600-101:2015) and can be accessed for wind waves and swells separately. Results suggest that wind waves are substantial contributors of wave energy in the northern part of the study area, whereas swells are more dominant in the other parts. Water depths have more pronounced impacts on the wave energy directions and the frequency and directional spreads in nearshore regions, especially in the Gulf of Thailand. Wave energy magnitude does not change much under SSP126 across the entire SCS. However, in the northern SCS, it increases under SSP245 and decreases under SSP585; and it increases in the southern SCS and decreases in the Gulf Thailand under both SSP245 and SSP585. At certain locations, trends of the magnitudes of wave energy do not reflect the level of forcing of the scenarios. These abnormalities can be traced to wind speed belts that have similar abnormal trends in the northern part of the study area and in the regions adjacent to the northeastern corner of the study area.</p>

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Wave energy characteristics in the South China Sea under future scenarios of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6

  • Botao Xie,
  • Hang Sun,
  • Haiyue Tan,
  • Xingjie Jiang,
  • Zhenya Song

摘要

This paper presents a comprehensive analysis of the wave energy characteristics of the South China Sea (SCS) for 2015–2100 based on three Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios denoted SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585, representing the low, medium, high future forcing pathways proposed in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). Averages and trends of selected wave energy parameters under the three future scenarios were analyzed and compared. These parameters are recommended by the International Electrotechnical Commission Technical Specification (62 600-101:2015) and can be accessed for wind waves and swells separately. Results suggest that wind waves are substantial contributors of wave energy in the northern part of the study area, whereas swells are more dominant in the other parts. Water depths have more pronounced impacts on the wave energy directions and the frequency and directional spreads in nearshore regions, especially in the Gulf of Thailand. Wave energy magnitude does not change much under SSP126 across the entire SCS. However, in the northern SCS, it increases under SSP245 and decreases under SSP585; and it increases in the southern SCS and decreases in the Gulf Thailand under both SSP245 and SSP585. At certain locations, trends of the magnitudes of wave energy do not reflect the level of forcing of the scenarios. These abnormalities can be traced to wind speed belts that have similar abnormal trends in the northern part of the study area and in the regions adjacent to the northeastern corner of the study area.