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Background <p>Cervical cancer remains a major public health challenge in East Asia, with heterogeneous epidemiological patterns across countries. A comprehensive comparison of long-term trends and future trajectories is essential to inform region-specific prevention strategies.</p> Methods <p>Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality of cervical cancer among women aged 20–64&#xa0;years in China, Japan, and South Korea from 1990 to 2021. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression, and future burdens were projected through 2050 using established demographic and epidemiological modeling frameworks.</p> Results <p>Marked cross-country differences were observed. China exhibited sustained increases in incidence and prevalence over the past three decades, while mortality and DALYs declined only modestly. For example, the age-standardized incidence rate in China increased from 16.74 per 100,000 population in 1990 (95% CI: 13.04–21.14) to 19.76 per 100,000 population in 2021 (95% CI: 13.99–26.14). In contrast, Japan showed relatively stable incidence and mortality rates, accompanied by moderate increases in prevalence, reflecting prolonged survival. South Korea demonstrated consistent declines across incidence, mortality, and DALYs, representing the most pronounced improvement among the three countries. Future projections suggest that, without intensified prevention efforts, the cervical cancer burden in China will continue to rise, whereas Japan and South Korea are expected to maintain stable or declining trends.</p> Conclusions <p>The burden of cervical cancer in East Asia shows substantial divergence. China faces a growing challenge, while Japan and South Korea have achieved more effective disease control. These findings underscore the need for tailored prevention and control strategies adapted to national contexts.</p>

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Comparative analysis of trends and projections of cervical cancer burden among women aged 20–64 years in China, Japan, and South Korea, 1990–2050

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月18日

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  • Xue Zhang,
  • Xiaoyu Tao,
  • Keyong Bao

摘要

Background

Cervical cancer remains a major public health challenge in East Asia, with heterogeneous epidemiological patterns across countries. A comprehensive comparison of long-term trends and future trajectories is essential to inform region-specific prevention strategies.

Methods

Using data from the Global Burden of Disease 2021 study, we analyzed incidence, prevalence, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and mortality of cervical cancer among women aged 20–64 years in China, Japan, and South Korea from 1990 to 2021. Temporal trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression, and future burdens were projected through 2050 using established demographic and epidemiological modeling frameworks.

Results

Marked cross-country differences were observed. China exhibited sustained increases in incidence and prevalence over the past three decades, while mortality and DALYs declined only modestly. For example, the age-standardized incidence rate in China increased from 16.74 per 100,000 population in 1990 (95% CI: 13.04–21.14) to 19.76 per 100,000 population in 2021 (95% CI: 13.99–26.14). In contrast, Japan showed relatively stable incidence and mortality rates, accompanied by moderate increases in prevalence, reflecting prolonged survival. South Korea demonstrated consistent declines across incidence, mortality, and DALYs, representing the most pronounced improvement among the three countries. Future projections suggest that, without intensified prevention efforts, the cervical cancer burden in China will continue to rise, whereas Japan and South Korea are expected to maintain stable or declining trends.

Conclusions

The burden of cervical cancer in East Asia shows substantial divergence. China faces a growing challenge, while Japan and South Korea have achieved more effective disease control. These findings underscore the need for tailored prevention and control strategies adapted to national contexts.