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<p>The efficiency of photovoltaic modules naturally decreases over time. In this work, a novel approach of modeling is introduced to forecast the evolution of a module’s electrical properties as it ages, leveraging parameters like maximum power point (Pm), optical transmittance (τ), and series resistance (Rs). These parameters are obtained through accelerated testing, including 85&#xa0;°C/85% RH damp heat (DH) testing conducted by Hulkoff in 2009. This methodology is applied to a case study involving a monocrystallin photovoltaic module, which is modeled by a single-diode equivalent electrical circuit featuring temporal characteristics of its optical and electrical parameters. The aging laws for these parameters were established using accelerated test data. A thorough parametric analysis uncovers that degradation of both optical transmittance and photovoltaic parameters with aging impacts the initial PV module performance. For 40 years of exposure, the maximum power will experience a degradation rate of 10%, while the annual degradation rate will be 0.25%/year. The efficiency underwent the same degradation, and the fill factor FF remained approximately unaffected (equal to 73%). By considering the proposed methodology of photovoltaic modeling, we have estimated the end of life of photovoltaic modules under aging and demonstrated that the PV module can subsist more than hundred years.</p>

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Accelerated aging modeling of photovoltaic modules: a novel approach utilizing accelerated stress test data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月6日

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  • Aissa Hali,
  • Yamina Khlifi

摘要

The efficiency of photovoltaic modules naturally decreases over time. In this work, a novel approach of modeling is introduced to forecast the evolution of a module’s electrical properties as it ages, leveraging parameters like maximum power point (Pm), optical transmittance (τ), and series resistance (Rs). These parameters are obtained through accelerated testing, including 85 °C/85% RH damp heat (DH) testing conducted by Hulkoff in 2009. This methodology is applied to a case study involving a monocrystallin photovoltaic module, which is modeled by a single-diode equivalent electrical circuit featuring temporal characteristics of its optical and electrical parameters. The aging laws for these parameters were established using accelerated test data. A thorough parametric analysis uncovers that degradation of both optical transmittance and photovoltaic parameters with aging impacts the initial PV module performance. For 40 years of exposure, the maximum power will experience a degradation rate of 10%, while the annual degradation rate will be 0.25%/year. The efficiency underwent the same degradation, and the fill factor FF remained approximately unaffected (equal to 73%). By considering the proposed methodology of photovoltaic modeling, we have estimated the end of life of photovoltaic modules under aging and demonstrated that the PV module can subsist more than hundred years.