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<p>The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources has created significant operational and economic challenges for power systems. In Brazil, DESSEM – the official short-term generation planning model – relies on deterministic forecasts which, due to the uncertainty associated with wind power, often differ from real-time generation. These deviations lead to rescheduling actions that require the use of flexible hydroelectric and thermal units, directly affecting operating costs and day-ahead prices. This work proposes a two-stage stochastic model that takes into account redispatch costs resulting from forecast errors in wind energy. Based on a day-ahead generation computed in the first stage, the second stage determines the impact of this decision in terms of generation adjustments induced by different wind scenarios. The qualitative utility of our approach is demonstrated by its application to a simplified hydrothermal configuration which, although not dealing with 0–1 variables, incorporates the main characteristics of DESSEM. Out-of-sample simulations show that the two-stage model not only ensures the feasibility of different wind configurations, but also effectively reduces redispatch costs and improves the allocation of system flexibility. These results are particularly relevant given current discussions in Brazil regarding the implementation of mechanisms able to value flexibility and to provide robust price signals in the presence of a high penetration of variable intermittent sources of energy.</p>

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A two-stage model to account for wind power forecast deviations in hydro-dominated systems

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月3日

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  • Lucas Roberto Dagort,
  • Erlon Cristian Finardi,
  • Claudia Sagastizábal

摘要

The increasing penetration of variable renewable energy sources has created significant operational and economic challenges for power systems. In Brazil, DESSEM – the official short-term generation planning model – relies on deterministic forecasts which, due to the uncertainty associated with wind power, often differ from real-time generation. These deviations lead to rescheduling actions that require the use of flexible hydroelectric and thermal units, directly affecting operating costs and day-ahead prices. This work proposes a two-stage stochastic model that takes into account redispatch costs resulting from forecast errors in wind energy. Based on a day-ahead generation computed in the first stage, the second stage determines the impact of this decision in terms of generation adjustments induced by different wind scenarios. The qualitative utility of our approach is demonstrated by its application to a simplified hydrothermal configuration which, although not dealing with 0–1 variables, incorporates the main characteristics of DESSEM. Out-of-sample simulations show that the two-stage model not only ensures the feasibility of different wind configurations, but also effectively reduces redispatch costs and improves the allocation of system flexibility. These results are particularly relevant given current discussions in Brazil regarding the implementation of mechanisms able to value flexibility and to provide robust price signals in the presence of a high penetration of variable intermittent sources of energy.