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<p>Coastal land erosion and accretion (EA) are dynamic processes influenced by local climate variability, often resulting in land loss and displacement of communities in Bangladesh. This study examines the interplay between climatic factors and coastal land changes by analyzing daily rainfall and temperature data from multiple meteorological stations over a 33-year period (1985–2017). To establish robust statistical relationships, we employ three correlation techniques—Spearman rank correlation, Pearson correlation, and Kendall’s tau—after applying a moving average smoothing method. Our findings reveal a strong correlation between rainfall and temperature (ranging from 0.74 to 0.80), with consistent patterns across the mainland and islands, although slight regional variations exist. To quantify land changes, we derive calibration factors by comparing year-by-year correlations with previously documented erosion and accretion rates. The analysis indicates that Bhola is experiencing significant erosion at a rate of 0.29&#xa0;km² per year, whereas Barishal, Patuakhali, Khepupara, and Mongla exhibit relatively stable conditions, with accretion rates ranging from 0.5 to 7.6&#xa0;km² per year. Beyond these climate-driven correlations, we integrate ecological factors by assessing the role of mangrove forests in coastal stability. Our results demonstrate that mangrove-dominated areas exhibit enhanced sediment retention, facilitating land accretion and mitigating erosion. This stabilizing effect becomes particularly crucial in regions affected by rising sea levels, where mangroves act as natural buffers, reducing coastal vulnerability. By synthesizing climatic correlations with ecological influences, this study presents a comprehensive, cost-effective, and adaptable methodology for evaluating coastal land dynamics. The findings offer valuable insights for sustainable land management and climate resilience strategies in vulnerable coastal regions.</p>

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Climate-driven coastal land dynamics in Southwest Bangladesh: insights from rainfall, temperature, and mangrove interactions

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月6日

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  • Syed Mustafizur Rahman,
  • Ashabul Hoque,
  • Md. Motiur Rahman,
  • Razia Sultana,
  • Md. Habibur Rahman,
  • Gour Chandra Paul

摘要

Coastal land erosion and accretion (EA) are dynamic processes influenced by local climate variability, often resulting in land loss and displacement of communities in Bangladesh. This study examines the interplay between climatic factors and coastal land changes by analyzing daily rainfall and temperature data from multiple meteorological stations over a 33-year period (1985–2017). To establish robust statistical relationships, we employ three correlation techniques—Spearman rank correlation, Pearson correlation, and Kendall’s tau—after applying a moving average smoothing method. Our findings reveal a strong correlation between rainfall and temperature (ranging from 0.74 to 0.80), with consistent patterns across the mainland and islands, although slight regional variations exist. To quantify land changes, we derive calibration factors by comparing year-by-year correlations with previously documented erosion and accretion rates. The analysis indicates that Bhola is experiencing significant erosion at a rate of 0.29 km² per year, whereas Barishal, Patuakhali, Khepupara, and Mongla exhibit relatively stable conditions, with accretion rates ranging from 0.5 to 7.6 km² per year. Beyond these climate-driven correlations, we integrate ecological factors by assessing the role of mangrove forests in coastal stability. Our results demonstrate that mangrove-dominated areas exhibit enhanced sediment retention, facilitating land accretion and mitigating erosion. This stabilizing effect becomes particularly crucial in regions affected by rising sea levels, where mangroves act as natural buffers, reducing coastal vulnerability. By synthesizing climatic correlations with ecological influences, this study presents a comprehensive, cost-effective, and adaptable methodology for evaluating coastal land dynamics. The findings offer valuable insights for sustainable land management and climate resilience strategies in vulnerable coastal regions.