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<p>Groundwater provides the principal irrigation lifeline for the semi-arid reaches of the Malwa Region of Northwestern India, yet its long-term sustainability remains increasingly uncertain. Using 25 years (2000–2024) of Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) monitoring-well data, this study mapped annual pre- and post-monsoon groundwater levels and identified statistically significant declines in 12 of 14 districts. It is observed that zones with water tables deeper than 20&#xa0;m expanded dramatically from 2&#xa0;km<sup>²</sup> in 2000 to 16,559&#xa0;km² in 2024, where the steepest depletion observed in Sangrur and Barnala district with − 1.35&#xa0;m yr<sup>⁻¹</sup> and − 1.26&#xa0;m yr<sup>⁻¹</sup> depletion respectively, marking the region’s principal hotspot of depletion. A concurrent doubling of registered irrigation tubewells from 0.56&#xa0;million to 1.12&#xa0;million, aligns with flat-rate electricity subsidies and intensification of the rice–wheat rotation, highlighting policy-driven over-abstraction. Additionally, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data reveal a persistent west-to-east rainfall gradient (115–1365&#xa0;mm yr<sup>⁻¹</sup>), offering limited natural recharge where depletion is most severe. The integrated attribution analysis further revealed that tubewell density (<i>r</i> = 0.67) and paddy acreage (<i>r</i> = 0.58) exert the strongest controls on groundwater decline, jointly explaining 71% of the variation in depletion trends in the multiple regression model. Random Forest regression also confirmed tubewell density as the dominant predictor of long-term groundwater decline. Overall, the results reveal an intensifying human influence over groundwater decline, driven primarily by the expansion of irrigation tubewells and the persistence of the rice – wheat system. These findings call for integrated policy action that combines demand management, crop diversification, and managed aquifer recharge with rationalized energy pricing to moderate groundwater abstraction. The study offers a concise, data-driven framework that can guide adaptive groundwater governance and sustainable water-energy planning across semi-arid agricultural regions.</p>

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Multi-decadal geospatial trend analysis reveals anthropogenic control of groundwater-level decline across the Malwa region of Northwestern India

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月20日

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  • Nitin Dwivedi,
  • Sunil Kumar,
  • Suraj Kumar Singh,
  • Shruti Kanga,
  • Pankaj Kumar,
  • Danish Khan,
  • Mohamed Yehia Abouleish,
  • Tarig Ali,
  • Gowhar Meraj

摘要

Groundwater provides the principal irrigation lifeline for the semi-arid reaches of the Malwa Region of Northwestern India, yet its long-term sustainability remains increasingly uncertain. Using 25 years (2000–2024) of Central Ground Water Board (CGWB) monitoring-well data, this study mapped annual pre- and post-monsoon groundwater levels and identified statistically significant declines in 12 of 14 districts. It is observed that zones with water tables deeper than 20 m expanded dramatically from 2 km² in 2000 to 16,559 km² in 2024, where the steepest depletion observed in Sangrur and Barnala district with − 1.35 m yr⁻¹ and − 1.26 m yr⁻¹ depletion respectively, marking the region’s principal hotspot of depletion. A concurrent doubling of registered irrigation tubewells from 0.56 million to 1.12 million, aligns with flat-rate electricity subsidies and intensification of the rice–wheat rotation, highlighting policy-driven over-abstraction. Additionally, Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) data reveal a persistent west-to-east rainfall gradient (115–1365 mm yr⁻¹), offering limited natural recharge where depletion is most severe. The integrated attribution analysis further revealed that tubewell density (r = 0.67) and paddy acreage (r = 0.58) exert the strongest controls on groundwater decline, jointly explaining 71% of the variation in depletion trends in the multiple regression model. Random Forest regression also confirmed tubewell density as the dominant predictor of long-term groundwater decline. Overall, the results reveal an intensifying human influence over groundwater decline, driven primarily by the expansion of irrigation tubewells and the persistence of the rice – wheat system. These findings call for integrated policy action that combines demand management, crop diversification, and managed aquifer recharge with rationalized energy pricing to moderate groundwater abstraction. The study offers a concise, data-driven framework that can guide adaptive groundwater governance and sustainable water-energy planning across semi-arid agricultural regions.