<p>Shallow-buried shield tunnelling in urban areas often causes significant ground settlement, requiring soil reinforcement and pre-grouting to mitigate risks. This study focuses on the Heyan Road tunnel in Nanjing and proposes an improved prediction method by incorporating equivalent soil layer synthesis, weighted coefficients, and displacement superposition. The classical Mindlin formula is modified to account for settlement induced by pre-grouting, and an embedded finite element modelling approach is developed to enhance computational efficiency. Theoretical predictions and numerical simulations are validated against field measurements, offering insight into ground behaviour at the tunnel’s starting section. Results indicate that, by extending the applicability of theoretical models and introducing a soil-layer transformation process, the proposed method improves settlement prediction accuracy and reduces computational complexity. Grouting and reinforcement measures reduce uplift and peak settlement by over 30%, while post-construction settlement is largely governed by stratum loss. Timely load application and secondary synchronous grouting can further limit deformation. These findings provide theoretical and practical support for settlement control in shield tunnelling under complex geological conditions.</p>