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<p>This study examined the historical shoreline evolution and predicted future changes for the Yeşilırmak Delta in Turkey, spanning from 1985 to 2024, with projections extending to 2044. The Yeşilırmak Delta has undergone substantial erosion due to a combination of factors, including sea-level rise and reduced sediment transport resulting from dam constructions along the river. The temporal shoreline changes were analyzed using Landsat satellite imagery and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), employing the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) and object-based classification methods. In addition to the shoreline analysis, a comprehensive examination of streamflow data from 1985 to 2020 was conducted to assess the reduction in sediment transport. This analysis revealed a significant decline in flow rates at key stations, which exhibited a strong correlation with increased coastal erosion. The study forecasts future shoreline changes for 2034 and 2044, emphasizing the pressing need for effective coastal and water resource management strategies to mitigate further degradation and safeguard this vital ecosystem.</p>

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Coastal erosion and stream flow dynamics: historical analysis and forecasting shoreline changes in the Yeşilırmak delta

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月26日

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  • Halil İbrahim Şenol

摘要

This study examined the historical shoreline evolution and predicted future changes for the Yeşilırmak Delta in Turkey, spanning from 1985 to 2024, with projections extending to 2044. The Yeşilırmak Delta has undergone substantial erosion due to a combination of factors, including sea-level rise and reduced sediment transport resulting from dam constructions along the river. The temporal shoreline changes were analyzed using Landsat satellite imagery and the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), employing the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI) and object-based classification methods. In addition to the shoreline analysis, a comprehensive examination of streamflow data from 1985 to 2020 was conducted to assess the reduction in sediment transport. This analysis revealed a significant decline in flow rates at key stations, which exhibited a strong correlation with increased coastal erosion. The study forecasts future shoreline changes for 2034 and 2044, emphasizing the pressing need for effective coastal and water resource management strategies to mitigate further degradation and safeguard this vital ecosystem.