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<p>Future projections under distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios are projected to drive significant alterations in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), thereby exerting heterogeneous impacts on sediment yield within the basins. This study employs the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze LULC dynamics and sediment yield responses across four representative SSP-RCP pathways in the Zhangweinan River Basin (ZRB). The results demonstrate four principal findings. First, the SWAT model exhibited robust applicability for estimating runoff and sediment yield in the watershed, with performance metrics including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R²), and percent bias (PBIAS) all falling within acceptable ranges. Second, under distinct SSP-RCP scenarios, sediment yields ranked as follows: S4 &gt; S2 &gt; S1 &gt; S3. Relative to historical annual averages, sediment load changes were quantified as + 0.05 × 10⁶t (S1), + 0.45 × 10⁶t (S2), − 0.15 × 10⁶t (S3), and + 0.65 × 10⁶t (S4), corresponding to change rates of + 1.03%, + 9.28%, − 3.10%, and + 13.40%, respectively.Third, Cropland exhibited the highest sediment yield among all land cover types, with a strong positive correlation between its spatial proportion and sediment output (R²= 0.92, <i>p</i> &lt; 0.01).Fourth, Human activities under SSP-RCP scenarios may exacerbate vegetation degradation, further intensifying soil erosion. Finally, To address sediment yield variations under different SSP-RCP scenarios driven by LULC changes, strategic recommendations are proposed. These include implementing optimized agricultural practices and ‘returning cropland to forests’ policies for croplands, artificial reforestation in forested areas, and strategic urban planning. Collectively, these measures aim to mitigate soil erosion and reduce downstream sedimentation impacts.</p>

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Quantitative decoupling of sediment yield response to LULC change under SSP-RCP scenarios in Zhangweinan River Basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月26日

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  • Yu Pan,
  • Xia Li,
  • Lin Qi,
  • Xin Liu,
  • Teng Yu

摘要

Future projections under distinct Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) and Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios are projected to drive significant alterations in Land Use and Land Cover (LULC), thereby exerting heterogeneous impacts on sediment yield within the basins. This study employs the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to analyze LULC dynamics and sediment yield responses across four representative SSP-RCP pathways in the Zhangweinan River Basin (ZRB). The results demonstrate four principal findings. First, the SWAT model exhibited robust applicability for estimating runoff and sediment yield in the watershed, with performance metrics including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R²), and percent bias (PBIAS) all falling within acceptable ranges. Second, under distinct SSP-RCP scenarios, sediment yields ranked as follows: S4 > S2 > S1 > S3. Relative to historical annual averages, sediment load changes were quantified as + 0.05 × 10⁶t (S1), + 0.45 × 10⁶t (S2), − 0.15 × 10⁶t (S3), and + 0.65 × 10⁶t (S4), corresponding to change rates of + 1.03%, + 9.28%, − 3.10%, and + 13.40%, respectively.Third, Cropland exhibited the highest sediment yield among all land cover types, with a strong positive correlation between its spatial proportion and sediment output (R²= 0.92, p < 0.01).Fourth, Human activities under SSP-RCP scenarios may exacerbate vegetation degradation, further intensifying soil erosion. Finally, To address sediment yield variations under different SSP-RCP scenarios driven by LULC changes, strategic recommendations are proposed. These include implementing optimized agricultural practices and ‘returning cropland to forests’ policies for croplands, artificial reforestation in forested areas, and strategic urban planning. Collectively, these measures aim to mitigate soil erosion and reduce downstream sedimentation impacts.