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<p>Water erosion leads to significant environmental, social, and economic challenges, such as the loss of fertile soil, reduced agricultural productivity, and water pollution. This study evaluates erosion-prone areas in the Oltu Basin, northeastern Türkiye, using the RUSLE model for the reference year (2023) and future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585, 2041–2060/2061–2080). The average erosion rate for 2023 was determined as 49.90 t/ha/year, classifying 36.71% of the basin as severe or higher erosion risk. The critical vulnerability is attributed to the basin’s steep topography, with an LS factor (~ 9.87) significantly exceeding the European average. Under future climate scenarios, average erosion rates remain relatively stable (49.87–52.53 t/ha/year). However, notable spatial variations emerge, particularly in the western basin, where high-risk erosion areas are expected to increase. These changes are driven by shifts in rainfall erosivity (R factor), with a decline in maximum values but a rise in minimum values. The R factor decreased from 148.64&#xa0;MJ mm/ha/h/year in 2023 to 144.90&#xa0;MJ mm/ha/h/year under SSP245 (2061–2080); however, soil loss increased slightly from 49.90 t/ha/year to 50.57 t/ha/year due to the uneven spatial distribution of the R factor within the basin. This study emphasizes the spatial shifts in erosion sensitivity rather than overall averages, providing critical insights for targeted erosion control strategies. The findings will assist decision-makers in mitigating soil erosion risks and developing climate-adaptive land management policies.</p>

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Assessment of soil erosion risk in the mountainous region of northeastern Türkiye based on the RUSLE model and CMIP6 climate projections

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  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年3月13日

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  • Kadir Gezici,
  • Selim Şengül,
  • Erdal Kesgin

摘要

Water erosion leads to significant environmental, social, and economic challenges, such as the loss of fertile soil, reduced agricultural productivity, and water pollution. This study evaluates erosion-prone areas in the Oltu Basin, northeastern Türkiye, using the RUSLE model for the reference year (2023) and future climate scenarios (SSP245 and SSP585, 2041–2060/2061–2080). The average erosion rate for 2023 was determined as 49.90 t/ha/year, classifying 36.71% of the basin as severe or higher erosion risk. The critical vulnerability is attributed to the basin’s steep topography, with an LS factor (~ 9.87) significantly exceeding the European average. Under future climate scenarios, average erosion rates remain relatively stable (49.87–52.53 t/ha/year). However, notable spatial variations emerge, particularly in the western basin, where high-risk erosion areas are expected to increase. These changes are driven by shifts in rainfall erosivity (R factor), with a decline in maximum values but a rise in minimum values. The R factor decreased from 148.64 MJ mm/ha/h/year in 2023 to 144.90 MJ mm/ha/h/year under SSP245 (2061–2080); however, soil loss increased slightly from 49.90 t/ha/year to 50.57 t/ha/year due to the uneven spatial distribution of the R factor within the basin. This study emphasizes the spatial shifts in erosion sensitivity rather than overall averages, providing critical insights for targeted erosion control strategies. The findings will assist decision-makers in mitigating soil erosion risks and developing climate-adaptive land management policies.