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<p>The COVID 19 pandemic is still causing a huge global hit and every year it hits millions of individuals. In response to this, we have created a comprehensive mathematical model in order to explore how the virus can develop and implemented a number of scenarios of vaccination. Our consideration of COVID-19 distribution pattern has been made especially using strict mathematical tools, such as Laplace Adomian Decomposition Method (LADM) and Caputo-type fractional-order derivative operator. Critical interrelationship between levels of transmission and strategies of vaccination is highlighted in our simulations. The enhancement of the rates of vaccination becomes an extremely powerful tool to reduce and stabilize the outbreaks of infections, and the enhancement of vaccine efficiency accelerates the process of containment of the virus. More importantly, the effectiveness of integer-order vaccinations in curbing transmission deserves mentioning, and the value of fractional calculus in optimizing the use of vaccines globally is beyond doubt. In essence, our results demonstrate the need to take measures to help reduce the rates of infections and recovery rates of the partially or un-vaccinated individuals. It requires strict complying with the regimens of booster doses, the continuous observation of protective prevention methods, and comprehensive educational efforts dedicated to popularizing the importance of booster vaccination among patients after treatment. The information presented in our analysis is beneficial to the health authorities when it comes to predicting the future of developments and the creation of effective eradication plans based on the current struggle against COVID-19 in Lagos, Nigeria.</p>

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Numerical simulation and stability analysis of a fractional-order model applied to partial and full vaccination classes for COVID-19 using real data from Lagos state, Nigeria

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月26日

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  • Akeem Olarewaju Yunus,
  • Morufu Oyedunsi Olayiwola

摘要

The COVID 19 pandemic is still causing a huge global hit and every year it hits millions of individuals. In response to this, we have created a comprehensive mathematical model in order to explore how the virus can develop and implemented a number of scenarios of vaccination. Our consideration of COVID-19 distribution pattern has been made especially using strict mathematical tools, such as Laplace Adomian Decomposition Method (LADM) and Caputo-type fractional-order derivative operator. Critical interrelationship between levels of transmission and strategies of vaccination is highlighted in our simulations. The enhancement of the rates of vaccination becomes an extremely powerful tool to reduce and stabilize the outbreaks of infections, and the enhancement of vaccine efficiency accelerates the process of containment of the virus. More importantly, the effectiveness of integer-order vaccinations in curbing transmission deserves mentioning, and the value of fractional calculus in optimizing the use of vaccines globally is beyond doubt. In essence, our results demonstrate the need to take measures to help reduce the rates of infections and recovery rates of the partially or un-vaccinated individuals. It requires strict complying with the regimens of booster doses, the continuous observation of protective prevention methods, and comprehensive educational efforts dedicated to popularizing the importance of booster vaccination among patients after treatment. The information presented in our analysis is beneficial to the health authorities when it comes to predicting the future of developments and the creation of effective eradication plans based on the current struggle against COVID-19 in Lagos, Nigeria.