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<p>We investigated the spatial–temporal characteristics and underlying mechanisms of marine cold spells (MCSs) in the Indonesian seas using the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature dataset from 1982 to 2021. Over this 40-year period, the average total number of MCS days, as well as event duration, frequency, and maximum intensity all showed a declining trend, reflecting the impact of global warming. We found that MCS events in western Indonesian region were more intense and stronger than those observed in eastern Indonesian region. We further identified and analyzed prominent MCS events in seven areas of interest, namely Western Sumatra 1, Western Sumatra 2, Southern Java, Southern Sumbawa, Banda Sea, Arafura Sea, and Northern Papua, with a focus on years that recorded the longest cumulative MCS durations: 1982, 1994, 1997, and 2019. Analysis of wind speed, coupled with heat budget assessment, confirms that robust MCS events along Southern Java to Western Sumatra are primarily triggered by wind-driven upwelling, which initiates surface cooling. While upwelling acts as the primary trigger, horizontal advection is the main mechanism responsible for distributing the resulting cold anomaly across the regions. Collectively, these dynamics subsequently cause mixed layer depth shoaling. Furthermore, simultaneous positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño events lead to intense sea surface cooling in the western and eastern Indonesian seas, significantly influencing MCS formation. While El Niño Southern Oscillation primarily affects MCS frequency, IOD plays a more critical role in determining their intensity. These extreme and persistent ocean cooling events pose a growing threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries, underscoring the need for further research and monitoring due to their potentially severe ecological and economic impacts.</p>

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Marine Cold Spells in the Indonesian Seas Under Climate Change: Trends, Classification, and Drivers

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月10日

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  • Erlin Beliyana,
  • Nining Sari Ningsih,
  • Ikliema Hassya Kamila,
  • Farrah Hanifah,
  • Ayi Tarya

摘要

We investigated the spatial–temporal characteristics and underlying mechanisms of marine cold spells (MCSs) in the Indonesian seas using the Optimum Interpolation Sea Surface Temperature dataset from 1982 to 2021. Over this 40-year period, the average total number of MCS days, as well as event duration, frequency, and maximum intensity all showed a declining trend, reflecting the impact of global warming. We found that MCS events in western Indonesian region were more intense and stronger than those observed in eastern Indonesian region. We further identified and analyzed prominent MCS events in seven areas of interest, namely Western Sumatra 1, Western Sumatra 2, Southern Java, Southern Sumbawa, Banda Sea, Arafura Sea, and Northern Papua, with a focus on years that recorded the longest cumulative MCS durations: 1982, 1994, 1997, and 2019. Analysis of wind speed, coupled with heat budget assessment, confirms that robust MCS events along Southern Java to Western Sumatra are primarily triggered by wind-driven upwelling, which initiates surface cooling. While upwelling acts as the primary trigger, horizontal advection is the main mechanism responsible for distributing the resulting cold anomaly across the regions. Collectively, these dynamics subsequently cause mixed layer depth shoaling. Furthermore, simultaneous positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño events lead to intense sea surface cooling in the western and eastern Indonesian seas, significantly influencing MCS formation. While El Niño Southern Oscillation primarily affects MCS frequency, IOD plays a more critical role in determining their intensity. These extreme and persistent ocean cooling events pose a growing threat to marine ecosystems and fisheries, underscoring the need for further research and monitoring due to their potentially severe ecological and economic impacts.