How Critically Endangered Red-Headed Vulture Would Respond to Climate Change: MaxEnt Habitat Modelling in Central India
摘要
Resident Red-headed vulture (Sarcogyps calvus Scopoli 1786) is reported as surviving well in Central India. Despite its critically endangered status, its habitat and population have been insufficiently studied, particularly in view of impending climate change. To address this knowledge deficit, habitat modelling was carried out using MaxEnt and Global Climate Models. The predicted habitats of present and future showed varied habitats experiencing expansion and shrinkage. Vector and distance of suitable area movement were also recorded. The projections fell in good to excellent category (AUC = 0.863–0.894; CBI = 0.988–0.989). Three top climatic variables impacting prediction were identified (Isothermality, precipitation seasonality and diurnal range of temperature) which contributed 85% to the habitat formation. In the coarsely realized niche, diurnal range of temperature and precipitation seasonality were replaced by land use landcover, and livestock population indicating that shelter and food availability were no less important than them. Elevation played a minor role up to 2%. In future scenarios, three cases showed net gain (5%–11%) and one case net loss (4%) in suitable habitat (91201km2). The suitable area migration was in east north- and west north- ward direction and it moved by 3 km to 14 km. Current population would increase nominally, exhibiting minor promise in a bleak future. The information generated here could be treated as reference and used for effective management of the species. It is suggested that quick recovery practices be enforced by completely walling off the population from diclofenac, followed by intensive breeding in captivity and habitat improvement.