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<p>A new mathematical model to analyze the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, with a focus on the Omicron variant, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and environmental contamination, is proposed. We derive the control reproduction number and examine the stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibria. Using the least squares method, the model was calibrated with data from India’s third COVID-19 wave. PRCC and normalized forward sensitivity analysis identified key parameters influencing disease spread, including the transmission rate (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="12591_2025_716_Article_IEq1.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="15" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>β</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) and the proportion of exposed individuals who become asymptomatically infected (<InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <InlineMediaObject> <ImageObject Color="BlackWhite" FileRef="12591_2025_716_Article_IEq2.gif" Format="GIF" Height="17" Rendition="HTML" Resolution="72" Type="Linedraw" Width="17" /> </InlineMediaObject> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\psi \)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mi>ψ</mi> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) as critical factors. The effect of various important parameters on the dynamics is assessed numerically. The proposed model is modified as an optimal control problem. The study concludes that the most effective control strategy is to continuously adjust the five control measures dynamically to minimize the number of infections while keeping costs as low as possible.</p>

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Modeling the COVID-19 Dynamics with Omicron Variant, Non-pharmaceutical Interventions, and Environmental Contamination

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年2月22日

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  • Amit Singh Thakur,
  • Govind Prasad Sahu

摘要

A new mathematical model to analyze the transmission dynamics of COVID-19, with a focus on the Omicron variant, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), and environmental contamination, is proposed. We derive the control reproduction number and examine the stability of both disease-free and endemic equilibria. Using the least squares method, the model was calibrated with data from India’s third COVID-19 wave. PRCC and normalized forward sensitivity analysis identified key parameters influencing disease spread, including the transmission rate ( \(\beta \) β ) and the proportion of exposed individuals who become asymptomatically infected ( \(\psi \) ψ ) as critical factors. The effect of various important parameters on the dynamics is assessed numerically. The proposed model is modified as an optimal control problem. The study concludes that the most effective control strategy is to continuously adjust the five control measures dynamically to minimize the number of infections while keeping costs as low as possible.