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<p>There is scarce research on the necessary policy instruments to reach sustainable healthy diets. Taking Mexico as case study, we identified a menu of fiscal policies to reach two variants of such a diet and assessed the long-term impact of attaining these diets on the food system. A macroeconomic model named MAGNET and a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model for more than 70,000 households were employed for the analysis. Our results showcased that realistic taxes and subsidies (ad valorem rates &lt; 100%) would only achieve 17% of these diets by 2040. A shift that reaches two-thirds of these diets would reduce carbon emissions by 10–13% and land pressure by 1–2%, compared to business-as-usual. Food would be more affordable for all but the poorer households. Negative repercussions for employment in the food system and economic growth would be expected, given the key economic role of animal foods. Mexico would reverse decades-long of trade inflows of unhealthy foods from the United States. Fiscal policies alone would be insufficient to reach the target intakes of fruits and vegetables among the poor, animal-sources among the highest income, and plant-based proteins among all. Therefore, complementary policies to encourage changes on consumers’ behaviour are warranted.</p>

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Fiscal policies alone may be insufficient to reach healthy, sustainable and culturally acceptable diets in Mexico

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月26日

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  • Marcos E. Dominguez-Viera,
  • Zuzana Smeets-Kristkova,
  • Anali Castellanos-Gutierrez,
  • Carolina Batis,
  • Marrit van den Berg,
  • Joana C. Chapa Cantu

摘要

There is scarce research on the necessary policy instruments to reach sustainable healthy diets. Taking Mexico as case study, we identified a menu of fiscal policies to reach two variants of such a diet and assessed the long-term impact of attaining these diets on the food system. A macroeconomic model named MAGNET and a Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System model for more than 70,000 households were employed for the analysis. Our results showcased that realistic taxes and subsidies (ad valorem rates < 100%) would only achieve 17% of these diets by 2040. A shift that reaches two-thirds of these diets would reduce carbon emissions by 10–13% and land pressure by 1–2%, compared to business-as-usual. Food would be more affordable for all but the poorer households. Negative repercussions for employment in the food system and economic growth would be expected, given the key economic role of animal foods. Mexico would reverse decades-long of trade inflows of unhealthy foods from the United States. Fiscal policies alone would be insufficient to reach the target intakes of fruits and vegetables among the poor, animal-sources among the highest income, and plant-based proteins among all. Therefore, complementary policies to encourage changes on consumers’ behaviour are warranted.