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<p>In this study, a short-term forecasting model for seafood exports is developed by integrating econometric and deep-learning methods. Using Korea’s monthly data from January 2000 to December 2023, we identified five key predictors—export price, won–yen exchange rate, Brent oil price, real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and seafood production—through a systematic feature selection process. Dynamic regression confirmed their significant effects on export volumes, while long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models produced accurate forecasts for January 2022 through to December 2023. The results highlight product-specific dynamics: seaweed snack exports are highly sensitive to global income and demand, reflecting their income-elastic nature, whereas tuna exports are mainly shaped by production capacity and relative price competitiveness. By simultaneously identifying key export determinants and generating forward-looking forecasts, this framework combines interpretability with predictive accuracy, offering practical implications for tailored trade strategies, proactive risk management, and sustainable policy planning in volatile global seafood markets.</p>

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Short-term forecasting of seafood exports: a hybrid approach for strategic trade planning

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月29日

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  • Kiuk Han,
  • Eunsong Won,
  • Keunsuk Chung

摘要

In this study, a short-term forecasting model for seafood exports is developed by integrating econometric and deep-learning methods. Using Korea’s monthly data from January 2000 to December 2023, we identified five key predictors—export price, won–yen exchange rate, Brent oil price, real gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, and seafood production—through a systematic feature selection process. Dynamic regression confirmed their significant effects on export volumes, while long short-term memory (LSTM) and gated recurrent unit (GRU) models produced accurate forecasts for January 2022 through to December 2023. The results highlight product-specific dynamics: seaweed snack exports are highly sensitive to global income and demand, reflecting their income-elastic nature, whereas tuna exports are mainly shaped by production capacity and relative price competitiveness. By simultaneously identifying key export determinants and generating forward-looking forecasts, this framework combines interpretability with predictive accuracy, offering practical implications for tailored trade strategies, proactive risk management, and sustainable policy planning in volatile global seafood markets.