<p>Studies on the prevalence of malaria and anemia in Nigeria identified malaria as a risk factor for anemia; however, the degree malaria alters the prevalence of anemia in children has not gained adequate attention. This study models the spatio-temporal pattern of malaria and anemia and quantifies the causal effects through the Average Causal Effect, Attributable Fraction, and Number Needed to Treat. A Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effect model, with the spatial component modeled through the stochastic partial differential equation, was adopted. This study used the 2010, 2015, and 2021 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Surveys datasets and the Geospatial covariates dataset for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, sourced from the Demographic and Health Survey database. The results showed spatial disparities in the prevalence of these ailments, indicating the North-west as the highest-burden region in the country for both health conditions. Findings showed that there are 0.6 and 0.8 probabilities that an under-age five child in Kebbi and Zamfara will have malaria and anemia, respectively. The study identified significant risk factors such as gender, maternal education, family wealth quantile, geopolitical zone, place of residence, fever, toilet facility, treated mosquito net use, mass media exposure, and age. Findings also showed that <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$11.17\%$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>11.17</mn> <mo>%</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$9.59\%$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>9.59</mn> <mo>%</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">$8.32\%$</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <mrow> <mn>8.32</mn> <mo>%</mo> </mrow> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation> of anemia cases could be prevented if malaria was eradicated among children in 2010, 2015, and 2021 respectively, and 6 children must be treated for malaria to prevent a single case of anemia.</p>

Malaria and Anemia in Nigeria: A Spatio-temporal Modeling and Causal Analysis

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发表日期：

2025年5月5日

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Osafu Augustine Egbon,
Mariella Ananias Bogoni,
Francisco Louzada

摘要

Studies on the prevalence of malaria and anemia in Nigeria identified malaria as a risk factor for anemia; however, the degree malaria alters the prevalence of anemia in children has not gained adequate attention. This study models the spatio-temporal pattern of malaria and anemia and quantifies the causal effects through the Average Causal Effect, Attributable Fraction, and Number Needed to Treat. A Bayesian hierarchical mixed-effect model, with the spatial component modeled through the stochastic partial differential equation, was adopted. This study used the 2010, 2015, and 2021 Nigeria Malaria Indicator Surveys datasets and the Geospatial covariates dataset for 2000, 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, sourced from the Demographic and Health Survey database. The results showed spatial disparities in the prevalence of these ailments, indicating the North-west as the highest-burden region in the country for both health conditions. Findings showed that there are 0.6 and 0.8 probabilities that an under-age five child in Kebbi and Zamfara will have malaria and anemia, respectively. The study identified significant risk factors such as gender, maternal education, family wealth quantile, geopolitical zone, place of residence, fever, toilet facility, treated mosquito net use, mass media exposure, and age. Findings also showed that $11.17\%$ $11.17 %$ , $9.59\%$ $9.59 %$ , and $8.32\%$ $8.32 %$ of anemia cases could be prevented if malaria was eradicated among children in 2010, 2015, and 2021 respectively, and 6 children must be treated for malaria to prevent a single case of anemia.