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<p>Progression of the European COVID-19 pandemic is monitored using daily cases and associated deaths, reported in Italy, Germany and England. Weekly periodicity in reporting is filtered out with a moving average over a 7-day window. This reveals underlying stages of exponential growth and decay, and changes in response to preventative interventions. Exponential rate constants <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\({r}_{t}\)</EquationSource> <EquationSource Format="MATHML"><math> <msub> <mi>r</mi> <mi>t</mi> </msub> </math></EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, combined with different serial-interval distributions, yield estimates for the basic reproduction number R<sub>0</sub> and instantaneous R<sub><i>t</i></sub>, and characterize the emergence of successive dominant viral variants. Rates of testing are discussed in detail, and corrected for. COVID-associated deaths are linked with daily cases, and fatality/case ratios (cfr) used to estimate the extent of under-reporting in the early stages. Reproduction numbers, R<sub>0</sub> and R<sub><i>t</i></sub>, provide estimates of vaccine coverage required to reach population-level immunity, and subsequent modifications needed during the vaccination programme. Hence, we obtain a straightforward integrated description of the pandemic that is essentially biophysical.</p> Graphical abstract <p></p>

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Daily profile of COVID-19 infections in Europe – a biophysical perspective

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年12月18日

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  • Derek Marsh

摘要

Progression of the European COVID-19 pandemic is monitored using daily cases and associated deaths, reported in Italy, Germany and England. Weekly periodicity in reporting is filtered out with a moving average over a 7-day window. This reveals underlying stages of exponential growth and decay, and changes in response to preventative interventions. Exponential rate constants \({r}_{t}\) r t , combined with different serial-interval distributions, yield estimates for the basic reproduction number R0 and instantaneous Rt, and characterize the emergence of successive dominant viral variants. Rates of testing are discussed in detail, and corrected for. COVID-associated deaths are linked with daily cases, and fatality/case ratios (cfr) used to estimate the extent of under-reporting in the early stages. Reproduction numbers, R0 and Rt, provide estimates of vaccine coverage required to reach population-level immunity, and subsequent modifications needed during the vaccination programme. Hence, we obtain a straightforward integrated description of the pandemic that is essentially biophysical.

Graphical abstract