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<p>This study examines the impact of household-level housing affordability, measured by the Price-to-Income (PTI) ratio, on fertility in urban China. Using data from the 2005 mini-census and an instrumental variable approach, the results show that a 10% increase in the PTI ratio leads to a 0.45% decline in the likelihood of urban women giving birth. This negative effect is observed among both homeowners and renters. Heterogeneity analyses further reveal that women with higher educational attainment and household incomes are disproportionately affected, highlighting the role of socioeconomic status in shaping fertility decisions. These findings are consistent with the Quantity-Quality trade-off theory, which posits that parents with greater human capital and income tend to reduce fertility when the cost of childbearing increases due to worsening housing affordability. The results underscore the broader social implications of housing market dynamics and offer policy insights for addressing fertility decline in urban China.</p>

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Does urban housing affordability affect fertility in China

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  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月25日

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  • Tunye Qiu

摘要

This study examines the impact of household-level housing affordability, measured by the Price-to-Income (PTI) ratio, on fertility in urban China. Using data from the 2005 mini-census and an instrumental variable approach, the results show that a 10% increase in the PTI ratio leads to a 0.45% decline in the likelihood of urban women giving birth. This negative effect is observed among both homeowners and renters. Heterogeneity analyses further reveal that women with higher educational attainment and household incomes are disproportionately affected, highlighting the role of socioeconomic status in shaping fertility decisions. These findings are consistent with the Quantity-Quality trade-off theory, which posits that parents with greater human capital and income tend to reduce fertility when the cost of childbearing increases due to worsening housing affordability. The results underscore the broader social implications of housing market dynamics and offer policy insights for addressing fertility decline in urban China.