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<p>Rapid industrialization, urban expansion, and intensive agriculture are driving significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Godavari River Basin (GRB), central India, posing a substantial threat to landscape integrity, biodiversity conservation, and ecosystem services. Despite the basin’s classification as highly vulnerable in multiple climate risk assessments and its role in sustaining livelihoods for nearly 10% of India’s population, a comprehensive Landscape Ecological Risk (LER) assessment has been limited. This study applies geo-statistical and spatial analysis to high-resolution Sentinel-1 based (10&#xa0;m) LULC datasets from 2018 to 2023. We used a grid-based approach (2 × 2 km<sup>2</sup>) integrated with Global Moran’s I and Local Moran’s I indices to detect spatial auto-correlation and hotspot patterns of ecological risk. Results indicate substantial LULC transitions, especially in waterbodies, flooded vegetation, and built-up areas, with LER values ranging from 0.0014 to 0.7839. High to very high-risk zones (1,348–1,868 km<sup>2</sup>) declined at an average annual rate of 26%, suggesting ecological improvement, while Global Moran’s I rose from 0.366 to 0.386 (+ 5.46%), evidencing increased risk clustering and a contagion effect that could accelerate land degradation, habitat loss, and environmental vulnerability if not mitigated. The findings highlight the urgency for nature-based solutions, sustainable land management practices, and policy-driven climate resilience strategies to safeguard the ecological health and sustainable development goals of the Godavari River Basin.</p>

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Spatio-Temporal Assessment of Landscape Ecological Risk in Godavari River Basin, India Using High-Resolution Land Use Data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年1月9日

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  • Asha Dhole,
  • Rakesh Kadaverugu,
  • Rajesh Biniwale

摘要

Rapid industrialization, urban expansion, and intensive agriculture are driving significant land use and land cover (LULC) changes in the Godavari River Basin (GRB), central India, posing a substantial threat to landscape integrity, biodiversity conservation, and ecosystem services. Despite the basin’s classification as highly vulnerable in multiple climate risk assessments and its role in sustaining livelihoods for nearly 10% of India’s population, a comprehensive Landscape Ecological Risk (LER) assessment has been limited. This study applies geo-statistical and spatial analysis to high-resolution Sentinel-1 based (10 m) LULC datasets from 2018 to 2023. We used a grid-based approach (2 × 2 km2) integrated with Global Moran’s I and Local Moran’s I indices to detect spatial auto-correlation and hotspot patterns of ecological risk. Results indicate substantial LULC transitions, especially in waterbodies, flooded vegetation, and built-up areas, with LER values ranging from 0.0014 to 0.7839. High to very high-risk zones (1,348–1,868 km2) declined at an average annual rate of 26%, suggesting ecological improvement, while Global Moran’s I rose from 0.366 to 0.386 (+ 5.46%), evidencing increased risk clustering and a contagion effect that could accelerate land degradation, habitat loss, and environmental vulnerability if not mitigated. The findings highlight the urgency for nature-based solutions, sustainable land management practices, and policy-driven climate resilience strategies to safeguard the ecological health and sustainable development goals of the Godavari River Basin.