Climate Long-Distance Interaction Signature for Spatio-Temporal Variability of Indian Monsoon Over the Tropic of Cancer: India
摘要
About 70–80% of India’s yearly rainfall falls during the summer monsoon, which makes it essential for water supply and agricultural output. This study examines the variability and predictability of the Indian Summer Monsoon by combining climate indicators, geospatial analysis, and satellite-derived precipitation information. The study assesses the “Indian Summer Monsoon Index (ISMI), East Asian Summer Monsoon Index (EASMI), South Asian Summer Monsoon Index (SASMI), and Western-North Pacific Monsoon Index (WNPMI)” and their correlation, coherency, and teleconnection with Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) across the Tropic of Cancer (ToC) using GIS-based spatial mapping and remote sensing techniques. Monsoon patterns have been shown to be significantly influenced by a number of climatic indices, such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). The onset, intensity, and spatial distribution of monsoon rains are all influenced by the intricate interactions between these climatic events. The results indicate that the strongest long-distance indicator is ISMI (ρ = 0.709), with a sharp change in correlation magnitude across the ToC (ρ = 0.530 (North) and ρ = 0.685 (South). According to the statistics, India’s overall drying trend is driven by a monsoonal precipitation decline of – 1.077 mm/year towards the north of the ToC and a minor drop of – 0.090 mm/year towards the south of the ToC (– 0.652 mm/year, – 0.076%/year). Additionally, with balanced dominance throughout the North (ρ = 0.467) and South (ρ = 0.466) of the ToC, SASMI (ρ = 0.539) emerges as a major monsoon predictor.