<p>A glacial lake outburst flood is a disaster that has catastrophic impacts on communities, infrastructure, biodiversity, and further downstream in the mountain region. Therefore, temporal observation and assessment of glacial lakes are significant concerns in reducing GLOF impacts. The Kashang watershed, 24&#xa0;km from the Sutlej River, contains one of the potential glacial lakes. The surrounding topographic conditions of the lake and its downstream-positioned elements suggest that it is a potentially dangerous glacial lake. Three large hydroelectric projects were located within 100&#xa0;km of the probable GLOF. The present study shows the maximum extent of the Kashang glacial lake and the adjacent future glacial lake and evaluates the downstream inundation using scenarios. The surface of the glacial lake was delineated using temporal satellite data. We modeled the future overdeepening in adjacent glaciers and the maximum extent of Lake Kashang. The modeling results showed that the excessively deepened sites in adjacent glaciers were likely to deepen further, potentially impacting downstream water resources. In addition, the maximum expansion of Kashang Lake is estimated to increase due to future glacier retreat and melt. Flood modeling of glacial lake outbursts using HEC-RAS and the future size of the lakes provides the flooded area during the unexpected discharge of a large amount of water in a short period of time. In addition, we considered the vulnerable locations around the current and future lakes in the Kashang valley that could increase the GLOF risk. The lake's surface area has increased more than four times, from 0.0825&#xa0;sq.&#xa0;km in 1993 to 0.3437&#xa0;sq.&#xa0;km in 2021. We also investigated the impact of GLOF water on the Kashang Hydroelectric Power Plant and assessed its impact on the Karcham Wangtoo Dam (1000&#xa0;MW). We recommend field studies and the establishment of an early warning system in this region as potential future research topics. Real-time monitoring of the early warning system can minimize the worst impact of the GLOF.</p>

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Understanding the Future Dynamics of Kashang Glacial Lake in Indian Himalaya: Remote Sensing and Modeling-Based Hazard Assessment

  • Rohit Kumar,
  • Ajanta Goswami,
  • Anil V. Kulkarni

摘要

A glacial lake outburst flood is a disaster that has catastrophic impacts on communities, infrastructure, biodiversity, and further downstream in the mountain region. Therefore, temporal observation and assessment of glacial lakes are significant concerns in reducing GLOF impacts. The Kashang watershed, 24 km from the Sutlej River, contains one of the potential glacial lakes. The surrounding topographic conditions of the lake and its downstream-positioned elements suggest that it is a potentially dangerous glacial lake. Three large hydroelectric projects were located within 100 km of the probable GLOF. The present study shows the maximum extent of the Kashang glacial lake and the adjacent future glacial lake and evaluates the downstream inundation using scenarios. The surface of the glacial lake was delineated using temporal satellite data. We modeled the future overdeepening in adjacent glaciers and the maximum extent of Lake Kashang. The modeling results showed that the excessively deepened sites in adjacent glaciers were likely to deepen further, potentially impacting downstream water resources. In addition, the maximum expansion of Kashang Lake is estimated to increase due to future glacier retreat and melt. Flood modeling of glacial lake outbursts using HEC-RAS and the future size of the lakes provides the flooded area during the unexpected discharge of a large amount of water in a short period of time. In addition, we considered the vulnerable locations around the current and future lakes in the Kashang valley that could increase the GLOF risk. The lake's surface area has increased more than four times, from 0.0825 sq. km in 1993 to 0.3437 sq. km in 2021. We also investigated the impact of GLOF water on the Kashang Hydroelectric Power Plant and assessed its impact on the Karcham Wangtoo Dam (1000 MW). We recommend field studies and the establishment of an early warning system in this region as potential future research topics. Real-time monitoring of the early warning system can minimize the worst impact of the GLOF.