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<p>Earthquake occurrence is primarily controlled by tectonic stress accumulation; however, external processes such as hydrological loading may influence the timing of fault failure. This study investigates the potential relationship between precipitation and seismicity in southeastern Ghana. An updated earthquake catalogue covering the period 1615–2018 was compiled to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns of seismic activity in the Greater Accra region and surrounding areas. For the statistical analysis, annual seismicity data for 1987–2018 were compared with precipitation records obtained from meteorological stations in Accra, Tema, Ada, Ho, and Takoradi. Pearson correlation and time-lag analyses were applied to examine possible associations between rainfall variability and earthquake occurrence. Results show a moderate positive correlation between annual precipitation and seismicity (r = 0.36–0.40), with statistical significance observed at zero-year lag (p = 0.043). This suggests that increased rainfall may contribute to short-term modulation of seismic activity, possibly through pore-pressure changes and hydromechanical stress adjustments along pre-existing fault systems such as the Coastal Boundary and Akuapem fault zones. However, the absence of significant correlations at other lag periods indicates that precipitation alone does not control earthquake occurrence. These results advise that while tectonic processes remain the main driver of seismicity in southeastern Ghana, hydrological processes may act as secondary triggers influencing earthquake timing.</p>

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A preliminary investigation into the relationship between seismicity and precipitation in South Eastern Ghana

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月23日

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  • Maximillian-Robert Selorm Doku,
  • Isaac Larbi,
  • Frederick Sam,
  • Kingsley Kwaah Tandoh,
  • Paulina Ekua Amponsah

摘要

Earthquake occurrence is primarily controlled by tectonic stress accumulation; however, external processes such as hydrological loading may influence the timing of fault failure. This study investigates the potential relationship between precipitation and seismicity in southeastern Ghana. An updated earthquake catalogue covering the period 1615–2018 was compiled to evaluate spatial and temporal patterns of seismic activity in the Greater Accra region and surrounding areas. For the statistical analysis, annual seismicity data for 1987–2018 were compared with precipitation records obtained from meteorological stations in Accra, Tema, Ada, Ho, and Takoradi. Pearson correlation and time-lag analyses were applied to examine possible associations between rainfall variability and earthquake occurrence. Results show a moderate positive correlation between annual precipitation and seismicity (r = 0.36–0.40), with statistical significance observed at zero-year lag (p = 0.043). This suggests that increased rainfall may contribute to short-term modulation of seismic activity, possibly through pore-pressure changes and hydromechanical stress adjustments along pre-existing fault systems such as the Coastal Boundary and Akuapem fault zones. However, the absence of significant correlations at other lag periods indicates that precipitation alone does not control earthquake occurrence. These results advise that while tectonic processes remain the main driver of seismicity in southeastern Ghana, hydrological processes may act as secondary triggers influencing earthquake timing.