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<p>This study addresses the escalating water scarcity in Lebanon, exacerbated by population growth, urbanization, climate change, and resource mismanagement. It integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to identify and predict potential groundwater recharge zones for the present, 2050, and 2100, while also proposing protection measures against urban encroachment. The novelty lies in the long-term predictive approach extending to 2100, incorporating validated Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) projections (kappa &gt; 0.84) and climate change scenarios into the MCDA framework. Eight key factors were analyzed: precipitation, lithology, LULC, NDWI, lineament density, slope, and drainage density. Results reveal that the highest recharge potential concentrates in a quarter-circular zone surrounding Beirut (15&#xa0;km radius), coastal and mountainous regions of North Lebanon, central Bekaa Valley, and southeastern South Lebanon, areas characterized by moderate-to-high precipitation (1100–1500&#xa0;mm), low drainage density, high lineament density, and permeable karstic limestone formations. By 2050, moderate increases in recharge suitability (0.15–0.44) are projected in coastal agricultural zones, while significant decreases (-0.74 to -0.88) occur in areas experiencing urban expansion. These identified zones are designated as restricted areas for urban development to ensure long-term water resource sustainability. This research provides a replicable framework for similar semi-arid regions facing combined urbanization and climate pressures, demonstrating how integrated geospatial approaches can bridge scientific assessment with actionable water resource protection policies.</p>

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An integrated geospatial analysis for identifying current and future critical groundwater recharge zones in Lebanon: integrating GIS and remote sensing techniques

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年3月28日

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  • Walid Al-Shaar,
  • Wadih Farah,
  • Mirna Doghman,
  • Mohamad Al-Shaar

摘要

This study addresses the escalating water scarcity in Lebanon, exacerbated by population growth, urbanization, climate change, and resource mismanagement. It integrates Geographic Information Systems (GIS), remote sensing, and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) to identify and predict potential groundwater recharge zones for the present, 2050, and 2100, while also proposing protection measures against urban encroachment. The novelty lies in the long-term predictive approach extending to 2100, incorporating validated Land Use/Land Cover (LULC) projections (kappa > 0.84) and climate change scenarios into the MCDA framework. Eight key factors were analyzed: precipitation, lithology, LULC, NDWI, lineament density, slope, and drainage density. Results reveal that the highest recharge potential concentrates in a quarter-circular zone surrounding Beirut (15 km radius), coastal and mountainous regions of North Lebanon, central Bekaa Valley, and southeastern South Lebanon, areas characterized by moderate-to-high precipitation (1100–1500 mm), low drainage density, high lineament density, and permeable karstic limestone formations. By 2050, moderate increases in recharge suitability (0.15–0.44) are projected in coastal agricultural zones, while significant decreases (-0.74 to -0.88) occur in areas experiencing urban expansion. These identified zones are designated as restricted areas for urban development to ensure long-term water resource sustainability. This research provides a replicable framework for similar semi-arid regions facing combined urbanization and climate pressures, demonstrating how integrated geospatial approaches can bridge scientific assessment with actionable water resource protection policies.