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<p>In this study, an enhanced probabilistic risk assessment system established on the basis of combining the conventional contamination indices and Monte Carlo simulation (50,000 iterations, with iteration count justified through a formal convergence analysis) was applied in the evaluation of Pb, Cd, and As pollution in five vegetables. The twenty samples were examined for metallurgical phase by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry (GF-AAS) following digestion in a microwave-assisted procedure. Species-specific accumulation trends were determined; wherein Mint and Leek proved to be the major Pb accumulators (1.95–2.45&#xa0;µg/g dry weight), Basil accumulated Cd to a great extent (0.15–0.21&#xa0;µg/g) and Spinach had fluctuating accumulation of As (0.01–0.30&#xa0;µg/g). Augmented Monte Carlo calculation with total sensitivity monitoring identified Lead as the greatest mean Hazard Quotient (2.74 × 10<sup>−7</sup>, 95% CI: [1.53 × 10<sup>−7</sup>, 4.21 × 10<sup>−7</sup>]) and Cadmium increased cancer risk (1.99 × 10<sup>−10</sup>, 95% CI: [2.69 × 10<sup>−10</sup>, 3.54 × 10<sup>−10</sup>]). Ecological risk was further quantified using the Hakanson potential ecological risk index (RI), explicitly defined here as a proxy of agro-ecosystem contamination signalled by vegetables acting as bioindicators of the bioavailable soil pool. Statistical validation established sufficient statistical power (0.85) and method precision (RSD); Pb 8.5%, Cd 11.2%, As 12.8%). Even though all of the risk estimates were below the levels of regulation, the probabilistic approach showed the critical exposure factors and the species-specific monitoring needed by scientific food safety management.</p> Graphical Abstract <p></p>

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Risk Assessment of Pb, Cd, and As Contamination in Common Vegetables: A Species-Specific Monte Carlo Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年6月24日

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  • Jamshid Piri,
  • Mohammad Reza Rezaei Kahkha,
  • Neda Ranjbar

摘要

In this study, an enhanced probabilistic risk assessment system established on the basis of combining the conventional contamination indices and Monte Carlo simulation (50,000 iterations, with iteration count justified through a formal convergence analysis) was applied in the evaluation of Pb, Cd, and As pollution in five vegetables. The twenty samples were examined for metallurgical phase by graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrophotometry (GF-AAS) following digestion in a microwave-assisted procedure. Species-specific accumulation trends were determined; wherein Mint and Leek proved to be the major Pb accumulators (1.95–2.45 µg/g dry weight), Basil accumulated Cd to a great extent (0.15–0.21 µg/g) and Spinach had fluctuating accumulation of As (0.01–0.30 µg/g). Augmented Monte Carlo calculation with total sensitivity monitoring identified Lead as the greatest mean Hazard Quotient (2.74 × 10−7, 95% CI: [1.53 × 10−7, 4.21 × 10−7]) and Cadmium increased cancer risk (1.99 × 10−10, 95% CI: [2.69 × 10−10, 3.54 × 10−10]). Ecological risk was further quantified using the Hakanson potential ecological risk index (RI), explicitly defined here as a proxy of agro-ecosystem contamination signalled by vegetables acting as bioindicators of the bioavailable soil pool. Statistical validation established sufficient statistical power (0.85) and method precision (RSD); Pb 8.5%, Cd 11.2%, As 12.8%). Even though all of the risk estimates were below the levels of regulation, the probabilistic approach showed the critical exposure factors and the species-specific monitoring needed by scientific food safety management.

Graphical Abstract