<p><b>Estimation of gas network tipping points by examining the self- reinforcing effect of gas grid fee increases in the wake of declines in gas consumption</b></p><p>Due to the defossilisation of the energy supply, one can expect a steep decline in gas consumption. Because of the ruling gas network regulation in Germany, a self-reinforcing dynamic of rising grid charges kicks in. The declining gas consumption leads to rising grid charges and the rising grid charges, in turn, lead to lower gas consumption. As a consequence of this a network can “tip” in the way that the grid charges rise sharply and the gas consumption in the network tends to zero.</p><p>Under the assumption that the grid users have a normally distributed willingness to pay, the self-reinforcing effects was examined. In course of this the effects of the parameters of the willingness to pay distribution in respect to the gas consumption were inspected. Furthermore, the condition for the stop of grid charge rise was derived.</p><p>With the help of the derived model a simple system for the forecast of the “tipping point” of a gas grid was developed. By the means of a more sophisticated form of this system a network planer should be able to establish a date for decommissioning of the grid by forecasting the “tipping point” of the network. Planned investments could be oriented towards this date and stranded assets could be diminished. If a decommissioning is not desirable to the estimated date, measures could be taken in order to prolong or shorten the lifetime of the grid.</p>