Bayesian Belief Network for Assessing Conservation and Tourism Development in UNESCO Geoparks
摘要
UNESCO Global Geoparks (UGGps) play a crucial role in preserving geo-wonders, fostering education, and promoting sustainable development through geo-tourism. However, they face challenges from the environmental impacts of geo-tourism and economic development. In Vietnam, Daknong UNESCO Global Geopark struggles with land encroachment and inadequate management due to the absence of zoning, highlighting the urgent need for detailed site evaluations to guide conservation and tourism development. To address these challenges, this study focuses on developing a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) model to evaluate conservation and tourism development in 41 geo-sites within Daknong UGGp. After reviewing 53 peer-reviewed papers, 23 geo-site values to assess sustainable tourism development were chosen to develop the BBN model. Accordingly, three main components were focused on, including initial-potential, environmental, and tourism values. The BBN model integrates various input factors from multi-source data, elucidating correlations and aiding in the assessment of local conservation and tourism status. The results show only 40% of geo-sites in the Daknong UGGp are being developed for sustainable tourism, taking into account environmental issues. The other 50% needs to be invested in both conservation and tourism development. Although the second tourist route exhibits considerable potential for tourism development, it falls behind the other routes in terms of environmental quality. Overall, the assessment emphasizes the need for targeted interventions in Daknong UGGp to strike a balance between tourism development and conservation.