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<p>The United States (US) Department of Agriculture (USDA) <i>World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates</i> (<i>WASDE</i>) provides forecasts of US sugar production and consumption, and Mexican sugar production, which are utilized to inform US sugar policy. The accuracy, bias, and efficiency properties of the USDA <i>WASDE</i> sugar forecasts are evaluated from fiscal year (FY) 1992/93 through 2022/23 for the US forecasts and from FY 2009/10 through 2022/23 for the Mexican forecasts. Overall, results show the forecasts are accurate, unbiased, and efficient. Thus, the forecasts are valuable to USDA’s execution of US sugar policy and provide a public service to sugar-using firms.</p>

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An Updated Evaluation of the United States Department of Agriculture Sugar Production and Consumption Forecasts

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月24日

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  • Karen L. DeLong,
  • Carlos O. Trejo-Pech,
  • Robert Johansson

摘要

The United States (US) Department of Agriculture (USDA) World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) provides forecasts of US sugar production and consumption, and Mexican sugar production, which are utilized to inform US sugar policy. The accuracy, bias, and efficiency properties of the USDA WASDE sugar forecasts are evaluated from fiscal year (FY) 1992/93 through 2022/23 for the US forecasts and from FY 2009/10 through 2022/23 for the Mexican forecasts. Overall, results show the forecasts are accurate, unbiased, and efficient. Thus, the forecasts are valuable to USDA’s execution of US sugar policy and provide a public service to sugar-using firms.