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<p>Developing meteorological year files for diverse extreme climate scenarios is essential for building performance evaluation and thermal resilience design, yet methods for extreme drought remain lacking. To address this gap, this study proposes a novel method for generating Extreme Drought Meteorological Years (EDY) that utilizes the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and run theory, aided by a Composite Drought Index (CDI) for identification. Through its application to six representative Chinese cities, the key parameters were determined as a 12-month SPI time scale and a drought threshold of −1.28. EDY files were generated and benchmarked against Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) data to simulate and analyze the cooling and heating load responses of typical office buildings. Results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively identifies historical years characterized by prolonged duration and high-intensity droughts, while revealing a consistent “drought-heat coupling effect” particularly pronounced in arid and high-altitude regions. Compared to TMY, the EDY scenario significantly increased extreme high-temperature frequency across all six cities, with a prevailing decline in relative humidity, though solar radiation exhibited regional variations. Cooling loads increased by 13.46% ± 14.48% during the cooling season, with peak loads consistently exceeding TMY levels; heating loads showed spatial divergence with multiple cities reaching historical extremes, and total annual building energy demand rose by 5.75% ± 3.27%. This study establishes the EDY framework as a fundamental tool for climate-resilient building design and energy system planning under extreme drought conditions.</p>

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A novel method for constructing Extreme Drought Meteorological Year

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月1日

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  • Wenhao Zhang,
  • Bowen Xue,
  • Liu Yang,
  • Honglian Li,
  • Zongbin Zhu,
  • Shangyu Wang,
  • Xiangxin Meng,
  • Yuhao Qiao

摘要

Developing meteorological year files for diverse extreme climate scenarios is essential for building performance evaluation and thermal resilience design, yet methods for extreme drought remain lacking. To address this gap, this study proposes a novel method for generating Extreme Drought Meteorological Years (EDY) that utilizes the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and run theory, aided by a Composite Drought Index (CDI) for identification. Through its application to six representative Chinese cities, the key parameters were determined as a 12-month SPI time scale and a drought threshold of −1.28. EDY files were generated and benchmarked against Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) data to simulate and analyze the cooling and heating load responses of typical office buildings. Results demonstrate that the proposed method effectively identifies historical years characterized by prolonged duration and high-intensity droughts, while revealing a consistent “drought-heat coupling effect” particularly pronounced in arid and high-altitude regions. Compared to TMY, the EDY scenario significantly increased extreme high-temperature frequency across all six cities, with a prevailing decline in relative humidity, though solar radiation exhibited regional variations. Cooling loads increased by 13.46% ± 14.48% during the cooling season, with peak loads consistently exceeding TMY levels; heating loads showed spatial divergence with multiple cities reaching historical extremes, and total annual building energy demand rose by 5.75% ± 3.27%. This study establishes the EDY framework as a fundamental tool for climate-resilient building design and energy system planning under extreme drought conditions.