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<p>Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common and severe complication following cardiac surgery, with an incidence of about 65% in older patients. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for POD in patients aged ≥ 18&#xa0;years, to enhance early detection and intervention. A retrospective analysis was performed on the data collected from 825 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at Nanjing First Hospital (May 2021–July 2022). POD was diagnosed using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU). We used LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression to identify key predictors for the nomogram. The incidence of POD was 23.6%, with significant predictors including head CT findings, hyperlactatemia before extubation, APACHE II score, ASA score, and length of hospital stay. The model demonstrated strong predictive ability (AUC: 0.922 training, 0.896 validation). A web-based calculator (<a href="https://baozexiang.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/">https://baozexiang.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/</a>) was developed to enhance clinical risk assessment and patient outcomes.</p> Graphical Abstract <p>Predictive model for postoperative delirium (POD) in cardiac surgery patients, demonstrating strong accuracy and clinical utility, with a web-based tool for individualized risk assessment. Figure created with <a href="https://BioRender.com">https://BioRender.com</a>.</p> <p></p>

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Development of a Nomogram Model to Predict the Risk of Postoperative Delirium in Cardiac Surgery Patients

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年6月24日

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  • Zikomo Gaudence Kipanga,
  • Zexiang Bao,
  • Marvel Gyeyock Tella,
  • Emmanuel Delali Kofi Fiagbey,
  • Salama Habibu Saad,
  • Bongani Mbambara,
  • Chernor Sulaiman Bah,
  • Asha Khatib Iddi,
  • Rui Ding,
  • Yanna Si,
  • Yuan Zhang,
  • Jianjun Zou

摘要

Postoperative delirium (POD) is a common and severe complication following cardiac surgery, with an incidence of about 65% in older patients. This study aimed to develop a predictive model for POD in patients aged ≥ 18 years, to enhance early detection and intervention. A retrospective analysis was performed on the data collected from 825 patients who underwent cardiac surgery at Nanjing First Hospital (May 2021–July 2022). POD was diagnosed using the Confusion Assessment Method for the ICU (CAM-ICU). We used LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression to identify key predictors for the nomogram. The incidence of POD was 23.6%, with significant predictors including head CT findings, hyperlactatemia before extubation, APACHE II score, ASA score, and length of hospital stay. The model demonstrated strong predictive ability (AUC: 0.922 training, 0.896 validation). A web-based calculator (https://baozexiang.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp/) was developed to enhance clinical risk assessment and patient outcomes.

Graphical Abstract

Predictive model for postoperative delirium (POD) in cardiac surgery patients, demonstrating strong accuracy and clinical utility, with a web-based tool for individualized risk assessment. Figure created with https://BioRender.com.