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<p>Acute pancreatitis is a common gastrointestinal condition with variable severity. Early identification is crucial for effective management. We evaluated the demographic profile of acute pancreatitis in the Indian cohort and assess the value of Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score and C-reactive protein in predicting severe outcomes. We ambispectively analyzed 1,250 patients admitted with acute pancreatitis to a tertiary-care center in India (2018–2025). The bedside score was calculated on admission and C-reactive protein at 48&#xa0;h. We evaluated outcomes like pancreatic necrosis, organ failure and in-hospital mortality. Multivariable logistic regression and receiver-operating-characteristic analysis were performed. The median age was 41&#xa0;years, with 74% males. Etiologies included idiopathic (36%), biliary (35%), and alcohol-related (20%). Severe pancreatitis occurred in 14.4% of cases, with 5.7% overall mortality, necrosis in 28.6%, and persistent organ failure in 18.4%. The Bedside Index score and C-reactive protein independently predicted outcomes. Odds of mortality increased 6.52-fold per Bedside Index point and 1.24- fold per 10&#xa0;mg/L rise in C-reactive protein. Both markers independently predicted necrosis (odds ratio 1.60 per Bedside Index point; 1.95 per 10&#xa0;mg/L C-reactive protein) and organ failure (4.66 and 1.22, respectively). The Bedside Index score predicted mortality with area under the curve 0.95 (sensitivity 85%, specificity 88%), outperforming C-reactive protein at 0.73; combined use reached 0.96. In this large cohort, the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score emerged as a robust early predictor of adverse outcomes, with C-reactive protein providing supplementary value.</p>

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Early Prognostic Scoring and Outcomes in Acute Pancreatitis: Ambispective Analysis of a Large Indian Cohort

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月21日

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  • Samir Vanani,
  • Dhvani Adhvaryu,
  • Mayank Kabrawala,
  • Mipasha Patel,
  • Nishtha Nandwani,
  • Aarya Desai,
  • Keyur Bhatt,
  • Dhaval Mangukiya,
  • Ritesh Prajapati,
  • Mohit Sethia,
  • Karshan Nandaniya,
  • Rajiv Mehta

摘要

Acute pancreatitis is a common gastrointestinal condition with variable severity. Early identification is crucial for effective management. We evaluated the demographic profile of acute pancreatitis in the Indian cohort and assess the value of Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score and C-reactive protein in predicting severe outcomes. We ambispectively analyzed 1,250 patients admitted with acute pancreatitis to a tertiary-care center in India (2018–2025). The bedside score was calculated on admission and C-reactive protein at 48 h. We evaluated outcomes like pancreatic necrosis, organ failure and in-hospital mortality. Multivariable logistic regression and receiver-operating-characteristic analysis were performed. The median age was 41 years, with 74% males. Etiologies included idiopathic (36%), biliary (35%), and alcohol-related (20%). Severe pancreatitis occurred in 14.4% of cases, with 5.7% overall mortality, necrosis in 28.6%, and persistent organ failure in 18.4%. The Bedside Index score and C-reactive protein independently predicted outcomes. Odds of mortality increased 6.52-fold per Bedside Index point and 1.24- fold per 10 mg/L rise in C-reactive protein. Both markers independently predicted necrosis (odds ratio 1.60 per Bedside Index point; 1.95 per 10 mg/L C-reactive protein) and organ failure (4.66 and 1.22, respectively). The Bedside Index score predicted mortality with area under the curve 0.95 (sensitivity 85%, specificity 88%), outperforming C-reactive protein at 0.73; combined use reached 0.96. In this large cohort, the Bedside Index for Severity in Acute Pancreatitis score emerged as a robust early predictor of adverse outcomes, with C-reactive protein providing supplementary value.