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<p>Mangroves play a critical role in coastal ecosystem services, particularly through their capacity to sequester large amounts of atmospheric carbon, contributing to climate change mitigation. Developing accurate mangrove carbon models is therefore essential for monitoring ecosystem condition and carbon stocks at relevant scales. This study aimed to estimate mangrove Above-Ground Carbon (AGC) in Baluran National Park by integrating field measurements and remote sensing data within a Machine Learning (ML) framework. The study utilised an extensive field data collection programme of 60 sampling plots of girth at breast height, canopy cover, tree height, and tree density. Mangrove AGC was estimated using allometric equations. AGC was also modelled by processing satellite images, conducting statistical analyses, developing models with five ML algorithms (Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN), and Gradient Boost (GB)), and checking accuracy using 5-fold cross-validation (CV) of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The RF model, using field-measured tree height, Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI), and Transformed Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (TSAVI), achieved the best performance (<i>R²</i> training = 0.93, <i>R²</i> testing = 0.84, 5-fold CV RMSE = 12.20 Mg C ha⁻¹). Predicted AGC ranged from 5.39 to 57.18 Mg C ha⁻¹ (mean ± Standard Deviation (SD) = 30.43 ± 16.09 Mg C ha⁻¹) and showed improved accuracy compared to the global mangrove biomass dataset of (Simard et al., 2019). A key contribution of this study is the integration of field-measured tree height within a satellite-based ML framework, which enhances the accuracy and ecological relevance of AGC estimation compared to approaches relying solely on spectral predictors or remotely sensed canopy height products, offering a practical and cost-effective alternative for sites where UAV or LiDAR data are unavailable. This approach provides a practical method for regional mangrove carbon monitoring, national carbon accounting and supports climate change mitigation efforts.</p>

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Integrating Remote Sensing, Field-Measured Tree Heights, and Machine Learning to Enhance Mangrove Above-Ground Carbon Estimation in Baluran National Park, Indonesia

  • 期刊论文

  • 出版模式：

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  • 发表日期：

    2026年7月1日

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  • Seftiawan Samsu Rijal,
  • Neil Saintilan

摘要

Mangroves play a critical role in coastal ecosystem services, particularly through their capacity to sequester large amounts of atmospheric carbon, contributing to climate change mitigation. Developing accurate mangrove carbon models is therefore essential for monitoring ecosystem condition and carbon stocks at relevant scales. This study aimed to estimate mangrove Above-Ground Carbon (AGC) in Baluran National Park by integrating field measurements and remote sensing data within a Machine Learning (ML) framework. The study utilised an extensive field data collection programme of 60 sampling plots of girth at breast height, canopy cover, tree height, and tree density. Mangrove AGC was estimated using allometric equations. AGC was also modelled by processing satellite images, conducting statistical analyses, developing models with five ML algorithms (Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Decision Tree (DT), k-Nearest Neighbour (k-NN), and Gradient Boost (GB)), and checking accuracy using 5-fold cross-validation (CV) of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The RF model, using field-measured tree height, Ratio Vegetation Index (RVI), and Transformed Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (TSAVI), achieved the best performance (R² training = 0.93, R² testing = 0.84, 5-fold CV RMSE = 12.20 Mg C ha⁻¹). Predicted AGC ranged from 5.39 to 57.18 Mg C ha⁻¹ (mean ± Standard Deviation (SD) = 30.43 ± 16.09 Mg C ha⁻¹) and showed improved accuracy compared to the global mangrove biomass dataset of (Simard et al., 2019). A key contribution of this study is the integration of field-measured tree height within a satellite-based ML framework, which enhances the accuracy and ecological relevance of AGC estimation compared to approaches relying solely on spectral predictors or remotely sensed canopy height products, offering a practical and cost-effective alternative for sites where UAV or LiDAR data are unavailable. This approach provides a practical method for regional mangrove carbon monitoring, national carbon accounting and supports climate change mitigation efforts.