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<p>Civil aviation has become one of the most exposed components of transportation security, facing a convergence of digital radicalization, insider threats, technological innovation, and symbolic targeting. Traditional counter-terrorism models often fail to address this hybrid character, leaving a gap in operational risk management. This article introduces a five-phase framework developed to meet this challenge and to provide a structured method for anticipating and mitigating aviation-related terrorist threats. The model consists of Digital Radicalization, Insider Access, Technological Enablement, Multimodal Execution, and Symbolic Amplification. Each phase reflects distinct behavioral and operational dynamics that, when combined, describe the evolving trajectory of aviation terrorism. To translate this framework into practice, four analytical tools are applied: the Phase Threat Index (PTI), the Threat Escalation Index (TEI), the Mean Phase Duration (MPD), and Regional Threat Heatmaps. These metrics enable early detection, escalation forecasting, and tailored risk prioritization. Validation is carried out through emblematic case studies, including the 2018 Gatwick drone disruption, the 2020 Vienna attack, and the 2021 Kabul airport bombing. Results highlight how early phases provide longer detection windows, whereas execution and symbolic amplification proceed rapidly, limiting opportunities for intervention. The framework contributes an applied diagnostic system for policymakers, aviation authorities, and airport operators. By integrating conceptual modeling with operational instruments, it supports foresight, strengthens resilience, and aligns aviation security strategies with the hybrid threats of the 21st century.</p>

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A five-phase operational risk framework for aviation security: modelling hybrid terrorism threats

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月17日

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  • Shola Shekili

摘要

Civil aviation has become one of the most exposed components of transportation security, facing a convergence of digital radicalization, insider threats, technological innovation, and symbolic targeting. Traditional counter-terrorism models often fail to address this hybrid character, leaving a gap in operational risk management. This article introduces a five-phase framework developed to meet this challenge and to provide a structured method for anticipating and mitigating aviation-related terrorist threats. The model consists of Digital Radicalization, Insider Access, Technological Enablement, Multimodal Execution, and Symbolic Amplification. Each phase reflects distinct behavioral and operational dynamics that, when combined, describe the evolving trajectory of aviation terrorism. To translate this framework into practice, four analytical tools are applied: the Phase Threat Index (PTI), the Threat Escalation Index (TEI), the Mean Phase Duration (MPD), and Regional Threat Heatmaps. These metrics enable early detection, escalation forecasting, and tailored risk prioritization. Validation is carried out through emblematic case studies, including the 2018 Gatwick drone disruption, the 2020 Vienna attack, and the 2021 Kabul airport bombing. Results highlight how early phases provide longer detection windows, whereas execution and symbolic amplification proceed rapidly, limiting opportunities for intervention. The framework contributes an applied diagnostic system for policymakers, aviation authorities, and airport operators. By integrating conceptual modeling with operational instruments, it supports foresight, strengthens resilience, and aligns aviation security strategies with the hybrid threats of the 21st century.