<p>This study examines how geopolitical dynamics surrounding the Bab al-Mandab and the Strait of Hormuz influence Somalia’s port commerce and maritime security. Specifically, it assesses the effects of global rivalries, regional power competition, and domestic institutional weaknesses on Somalia’s trade security, port performance, and maritime governance.&#xa0;The study draws on Classical Geopolitical Theory, Dependency Theory, and Realism. Building on the limitations of these approaches in fragile-state contexts, it introduces the Maritime Geopolitical Vulnerability Theory (MGVT), which argues that proximity to strategic maritime chokepoints can intensify vulnerability rather than confer advantage when institutional capacity is weak.&#xa0;A quantitative, descriptive, and correlational design was employed. Data were collected through a structured questionnaire administered to a stratified random sample of 352 professionals across Somalia’s maritime sector. Descriptive statistics and correlation analysis were used to examine relationships among key variables. The results indicate that Somalia’s maritime sector faces acute vulnerability. Eighty percent of respondents rated the sector as highly or extremely vulnerable. Global and regional geopolitical tensions are associated with significant increases in freight and insurance costs, while regional power competition contributes to fragmented maritime governance. Institutional capacity was rated as particularly weak, especially at the federal level.&#xa0;The findings suggest that Somalia’s proximity to major maritime chokepoints heightens exposure to external shocks when combined with internal fragility. While exploratory, the results provide preliminary empirical support for MGVT and underscore the importance of institutional reform as a foundation for maritime resilience.</p>