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<p>This study examines whether GNSS anomalies in ADS-B data can serve as early indicators of geopolitical events, such as civil unrest or military conflict. Prior research suggests a link between air traffic volume and GNSS anomalies, particularly in regions with potential political instability. Using ADS-B data from the OpenSky Network and conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location &amp; Event Data Project (ACLED), this study analyzes the relationship between GNSS anomalies and geopolitical tensions, including battles, violent protests, riots, explosions, and violence against civilians. GNSS anomalies are measured by the density of GNSS gaps and deviations, normalized by total traffic in a region. The findings suggest a connection between GNSS disruptions and political unrest, with anomalies often aligning with early conflict stages. The study indicates that GNSS interference patterns, combined with air traffic and other data, may offer insights into the timing and location of emerging geopolitical risks. This research enhances understanding of GNSS interference in aviation and proposes using open-source aviation data for geopolitical risk assessments, potentially enabling aviation stakeholders to mitigate risks in conflict-prone regions and supporting near real-time warnings for geopolitical instabilities.</p>

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Predicting geopolitical instability through GNSS anomalies and air traffic data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月22日

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  • Eugene Pik,
  • João S. D. Garcia,
  • Timothy A. Smith,
  • Ibrahim Kocaman,
  • Matthew Berra

摘要

This study examines whether GNSS anomalies in ADS-B data can serve as early indicators of geopolitical events, such as civil unrest or military conflict. Prior research suggests a link between air traffic volume and GNSS anomalies, particularly in regions with potential political instability. Using ADS-B data from the OpenSky Network and conflict data from the Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project (ACLED), this study analyzes the relationship between GNSS anomalies and geopolitical tensions, including battles, violent protests, riots, explosions, and violence against civilians. GNSS anomalies are measured by the density of GNSS gaps and deviations, normalized by total traffic in a region. The findings suggest a connection between GNSS disruptions and political unrest, with anomalies often aligning with early conflict stages. The study indicates that GNSS interference patterns, combined with air traffic and other data, may offer insights into the timing and location of emerging geopolitical risks. This research enhances understanding of GNSS interference in aviation and proposes using open-source aviation data for geopolitical risk assessments, potentially enabling aviation stakeholders to mitigate risks in conflict-prone regions and supporting near real-time warnings for geopolitical instabilities.