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<p>This study examines the relationship between currency devaluation and the volatility of Bitcoin returns and mining profitability from 2015 to 2025 in major mining hubs characterized by significant exchange-rate exposure and cost sensitivity. While prior literature has focused on demand-side volatility drivers, this research places greater attention on supply-side fluctuations through the exchange rates channel. Applying DCC-GARCH and Regime-Switching Copula methods, we demonstrate that depreciation of the local currency reduced mining costs, increased the Bitcoin return volatility, and its responsiveness to macro-financial linkages. These results underline the importance of USD hedging and dynamic taxation regimes for Bitcoin miners. The study progresses the modeling of volatility through incorporating the exchange rate elasticity into the analysis of market interdependence in the crypto-asset sector.</p>

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The impact of currency fluctuations on Bitcoin mining profitability and return volatility: a non-linear approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月30日

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  • Amin Shakourloo,
  • Asil Azimli

摘要

This study examines the relationship between currency devaluation and the volatility of Bitcoin returns and mining profitability from 2015 to 2025 in major mining hubs characterized by significant exchange-rate exposure and cost sensitivity. While prior literature has focused on demand-side volatility drivers, this research places greater attention on supply-side fluctuations through the exchange rates channel. Applying DCC-GARCH and Regime-Switching Copula methods, we demonstrate that depreciation of the local currency reduced mining costs, increased the Bitcoin return volatility, and its responsiveness to macro-financial linkages. These results underline the importance of USD hedging and dynamic taxation regimes for Bitcoin miners. The study progresses the modeling of volatility through incorporating the exchange rate elasticity into the analysis of market interdependence in the crypto-asset sector.