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<p>Sports betting markets have been extensively used to analyze the efficient market hypothesis, frequently using data from the National Football League in the United States, horse racing in Britain and Australia, or football in Europe. Utilizing data from tapology.com, we analyze betting market efficiency for mixed martial arts (MMA), a sport that, to our knowledge, has not been examined before. We find no evidence of a favorite-longshot bias that has frequently been found in other sports. However, with regards to fighter characteristics, MMA odds makers are not efficiently accounting for youth or travel advantages in MMA betting markets. Betting on favorites in women’s contests also present a promising strategy. Out-of-sample predictions, however, yield few statistically significant positive returns. We conclude that, compared to other sports, MMA is largely an efficient market. We discuss potential reasons for this.</p>

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Efficient market insights and favorite-longshot bias in mixed martial arts betting markets

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月20日

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  • Kaiana M. Miller,
  • Mark W. Nichols

摘要

Sports betting markets have been extensively used to analyze the efficient market hypothesis, frequently using data from the National Football League in the United States, horse racing in Britain and Australia, or football in Europe. Utilizing data from tapology.com, we analyze betting market efficiency for mixed martial arts (MMA), a sport that, to our knowledge, has not been examined before. We find no evidence of a favorite-longshot bias that has frequently been found in other sports. However, with regards to fighter characteristics, MMA odds makers are not efficiently accounting for youth or travel advantages in MMA betting markets. Betting on favorites in women’s contests also present a promising strategy. Out-of-sample predictions, however, yield few statistically significant positive returns. We conclude that, compared to other sports, MMA is largely an efficient market. We discuss potential reasons for this.