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<p>Nipah virus (NiV) is one of the most deadly and frequent zoonotic hazards in many regions around the globe which causes fatalities over 70%. Human-to-human transmission, zoonotic spillover from pigs and diseases contracted from hospitalized or even deceased people are all part of its complex transmission network. This study presents a novel two-population computational model and its thorough analysis that link transmission of NiV within pig and human hosts through multiple transmission routes. We construct a nine-dimensional nonlinear model that incorporates transmission from hospitalized and deceased individuals. Local and global stabilities of disease-free and endemic equilibria are rigorously examined using standard Lyapunov approach. The basic reproduction numbers for each population is evaluated and their influence on disease dynamics is assessed. Data-driven investigation of epidemic dynamics is performed by estimating parameters from reported data in Bangladesh during 2001 to 2024 outbreaks. The factors most important to NiV spread are identified using normalized sensitivity analysis, and the effects of various interventions are analyzed using an optimal control problem based on Pontryagin Maximum Principle. Numerical simulation demonstrates the suggested time-depended control measures, particularly those that interrupt transmission from deceased persons and reduce pig-to-human contact, can significantly reduce disease burden. This work not only improves our understanding of NiV epidemiology, but it also provides a solid mathematical structure for developing successful evidence based outbreak control approaches.</p>

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A nonlinear data-driven two-population modeling approach assessing the dynamics and optimal control of Nipah viral infection with multiple transmission pathways

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月16日

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  • Hua Shi,
  • Sabila,
  • Saif Ullah,
  • Muhammad Asim,
  • Taseer Muhammad

摘要

Nipah virus (NiV) is one of the most deadly and frequent zoonotic hazards in many regions around the globe which causes fatalities over 70%. Human-to-human transmission, zoonotic spillover from pigs and diseases contracted from hospitalized or even deceased people are all part of its complex transmission network. This study presents a novel two-population computational model and its thorough analysis that link transmission of NiV within pig and human hosts through multiple transmission routes. We construct a nine-dimensional nonlinear model that incorporates transmission from hospitalized and deceased individuals. Local and global stabilities of disease-free and endemic equilibria are rigorously examined using standard Lyapunov approach. The basic reproduction numbers for each population is evaluated and their influence on disease dynamics is assessed. Data-driven investigation of epidemic dynamics is performed by estimating parameters from reported data in Bangladesh during 2001 to 2024 outbreaks. The factors most important to NiV spread are identified using normalized sensitivity analysis, and the effects of various interventions are analyzed using an optimal control problem based on Pontryagin Maximum Principle. Numerical simulation demonstrates the suggested time-depended control measures, particularly those that interrupt transmission from deceased persons and reduce pig-to-human contact, can significantly reduce disease burden. This work not only improves our understanding of NiV epidemiology, but it also provides a solid mathematical structure for developing successful evidence based outbreak control approaches.