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<p>This research paper introduces an SQIR-V epidemic model to investigate the transmission of infectious diseases. Particular attention is paid to the roles of vaccination and quarantine (incorporating physical distancing interventions) in protecting susceptible individuals. The model features nonlinear transition rates that depend on the history of infection, allowing the emergence of periodic solutions. We calculate the basic reproduction number, <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\( R_{0}\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, and analyze the local asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points. Additionally, we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_{0}\leq 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. The study further explores the existence of periodic solutions through a Hopf bifurcation, showing the occurrence of epidemic waves. A condition was derived to determine the direction of the crossing of the imaginary axis. We finish by presenting some numerical simulations to illustrate how vaccination and isolation delays influence disease dynamics. Those findings highlight potential areas for further research and validation.</p>

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How delay, isolation and vaccination shape epidemic waves: a bifurcation approach in mathematical epidemiology

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年2月3日

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  • Mehdi Bouziane,
  • Silia Bercisse,
  • Abdennasser Chekroun,
  • Simon Girel

摘要

This research paper introduces an SQIR-V epidemic model to investigate the transmission of infectious diseases. Particular attention is paid to the roles of vaccination and quarantine (incorporating physical distancing interventions) in protecting susceptible individuals. The model features nonlinear transition rates that depend on the history of infection, allowing the emergence of periodic solutions. We calculate the basic reproduction number, \( R_{0}\) , and analyze the local asymptotic stability of the equilibrium points. Additionally, we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable when \(R_{0}\leq 1\) . The study further explores the existence of periodic solutions through a Hopf bifurcation, showing the occurrence of epidemic waves. A condition was derived to determine the direction of the crossing of the imaginary axis. We finish by presenting some numerical simulations to illustrate how vaccination and isolation delays influence disease dynamics. Those findings highlight potential areas for further research and validation.