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<p>Measles is a highly contagious and sometimes fatal viral disease that continues to pose a significant threat across the globe, particularly in areas with low vaccination coverage. Despite the availability of effective vaccination, measles outbreaks continue, highlighting the urgent need for stronger preventive measures. This study proposes a mathematical model that classifies the population into five categories. This is based on the epidemiological status of individuals in the population: susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, infected, and recovered individuals. The study investigates how various control strategies, such as vaccination, public health education, and considering the impact of waning immunity, can help prevent the spread of measles. To estimate the parameters of our model, we fit the model to the observed data obtained from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control using cumulative weekly reported measles case data from Nigeria, covering January to December 2024. We calculate the effective reproduction number (<InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_e\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) to see how the disease spreads under different settings, and we utilize sensitivity analysis to discover which factors have the greatest impact. The findings indicate that measles transmission rate and vaccine effectiveness are the most critical drivers of disease spread. Public health education, represented by a parameter in the model, also plays an important role in reducing dangerous behaviors and transmission. Numerical simulations show that increased vaccination coverage and public awareness campaigns greatly lower the incidence of illnesses. The findings indicate that in order to effectively reduce measles, we need a multifaceted approach that combines broad vaccination, efforts to improve vaccine quality, and robust public health education campaigns. These ideas can guide governments and health organizations in formulating effective policies to avoid future outbreaks and safeguard public health.</p>

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Assessing measles control through vaccination and public health education: a data-driven mathematical modeling approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年11月17日

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  • Olumuyiwa James Peter,
  • Kelly Joëlle Gatore Sinigirira,
  • Ghaniyyat Bolanle Balogun,
  • Gbolahan Bolarin

摘要

Measles is a highly contagious and sometimes fatal viral disease that continues to pose a significant threat across the globe, particularly in areas with low vaccination coverage. Despite the availability of effective vaccination, measles outbreaks continue, highlighting the urgent need for stronger preventive measures. This study proposes a mathematical model that classifies the population into five categories. This is based on the epidemiological status of individuals in the population: susceptible, vaccinated, exposed, infected, and recovered individuals. The study investigates how various control strategies, such as vaccination, public health education, and considering the impact of waning immunity, can help prevent the spread of measles. To estimate the parameters of our model, we fit the model to the observed data obtained from the Nigeria Centre for Disease Control using cumulative weekly reported measles case data from Nigeria, covering January to December 2024. We calculate the effective reproduction number ( \(R_e\) ) to see how the disease spreads under different settings, and we utilize sensitivity analysis to discover which factors have the greatest impact. The findings indicate that measles transmission rate and vaccine effectiveness are the most critical drivers of disease spread. Public health education, represented by a parameter in the model, also plays an important role in reducing dangerous behaviors and transmission. Numerical simulations show that increased vaccination coverage and public awareness campaigns greatly lower the incidence of illnesses. The findings indicate that in order to effectively reduce measles, we need a multifaceted approach that combines broad vaccination, efforts to improve vaccine quality, and robust public health education campaigns. These ideas can guide governments and health organizations in formulating effective policies to avoid future outbreaks and safeguard public health.