<p>Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health challenge, particularly in high-burden countries such as India, china, Indonesia, etc. In these regions, ongoing transmission and relapse hinder control efforts. This study develops and analyzes a compartmental <InlineEquation ID="IEq1"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(SE_1E_2IRB\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> model that incorporates environmental transmission and relapse pathways. The basic reproduction number <InlineEquation ID="IEq2"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> is derived through the next-generation matrix method. Lyapunov functions is used to establish the global asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium. Bifurcation analysis examines system behavior at the critical threshold <InlineEquation ID="IEq3"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0 = 1\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>. Parameter sensitivity analysis identifies the transmission rate (<InlineEquation ID="IEq4"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), slow latent reactivation rate (<InlineEquation ID="IEq5"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\rho_2\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>), and recovery rate (<InlineEquation ID="IEq6"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\gamma\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>) as key drivers of TB dynamics. An increase in <InlineEquation ID="IEq7"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\beta\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> or <InlineEquation ID="IEq8"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(\rho_2\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> by 10% raises <InlineEquation ID="IEq9"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> by 8.9% and 8.8%, respectively, while a 10% improvement in recovery reduces <InlineEquation ID="IEq10"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation> by 8.6%. The impact of vaccination is further analyzed using an optimal control framework for <InlineEquation ID="IEq11"> <EquationSource Format="TEX">\(R_0 = 1.43\)</EquationSource> </InlineEquation>, representing sustained transmission in the absence of interventions. Using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, the optimal timing and intensity of vaccination are determined to minimize infections and maximize recoveries. Vaccination strategies, specifically Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), reduce the infected population (from 2,504 to 2,316 within 3 years) and substantially increase recoveries (from 2,748 to 199,783). Achieving vaccination coverage of 90% or higher yields near-optimal reductions in infection and substantial gains in population immunity. High-coverage BCG vaccination is a cost-effective strategy that can guide policy toward India’s TB elimination and 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and WHO elimination targets.</p>

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Mathematical modeling of tuberculosis transmission dynamics: assessing vaccination impact with environmental transmission and reinfection

  • Pooja Khoda,
  • Vijay Pal Bajiya,
  • Sada Nand Prasad,
  • Om Prakash Meena

摘要

Tuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health challenge, particularly in high-burden countries such as India, china, Indonesia, etc. In these regions, ongoing transmission and relapse hinder control efforts. This study develops and analyzes a compartmental \(SE_1E_2IRB\) model that incorporates environmental transmission and relapse pathways. The basic reproduction number \(R_0\) is derived through the next-generation matrix method. Lyapunov functions is used to establish the global asymptotic stability of the infection-free equilibrium. Bifurcation analysis examines system behavior at the critical threshold \(R_0 = 1\) . Parameter sensitivity analysis identifies the transmission rate ( \(\beta\) ), slow latent reactivation rate ( \(\rho_2\) ), and recovery rate ( \(\gamma\) ) as key drivers of TB dynamics. An increase in \(\beta\) or \(\rho_2\) by 10% raises \(R_0\) by 8.9% and 8.8%, respectively, while a 10% improvement in recovery reduces \(R_0\) by 8.6%. The impact of vaccination is further analyzed using an optimal control framework for \(R_0 = 1.43\) , representing sustained transmission in the absence of interventions. Using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, the optimal timing and intensity of vaccination are determined to minimize infections and maximize recoveries. Vaccination strategies, specifically Bacillus Calmette-Guérin (BCG), reduce the infected population (from 2,504 to 2,316 within 3 years) and substantially increase recoveries (from 2,748 to 199,783). Achieving vaccination coverage of 90% or higher yields near-optimal reductions in infection and substantial gains in population immunity. High-coverage BCG vaccination is a cost-effective strategy that can guide policy toward India’s TB elimination and 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and WHO elimination targets.