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<p>Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV) poses a significant threat to banana production worldwide, particularly in regions dependent on banana cultivation for food security and income. In this study, we present a comprehensive mathematical modeling framework to analyze the transmission dynamics and control of Banana Bunchy Top Disease (BBTD). We derived the basic reproduction number and performed a stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium point. To mitigate the spread of BBTV, we incorporated three time-dependent control strategies: defense priming, screening of latently infected plants and roguing. Using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, we formulated and solved the associated optimal control problem using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. The efficiency analysis results showed that the combination of defense priming, screening, and roguing was the most efficient strategy for eliminating BBTV. Furthermore, cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that the combination of defense priming and roguing was the optimal control strategy to eliminate BBTD at a lower cost. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers and agricultural practitioners advocating enhanced screening, defense priming, and timely roguing to mitigate the spread of Banana Bunchy Top Disease.</p>

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Optimal control strategies for the suppression of banana bunchy top virus: integrating defense priming, host screening, and roguing

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年8月19日

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  • John J. Mapinda,
  • Alfred K. Hugo,
  • Jairos K. Shinzeh,
  • Stephen Edward

摘要

Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV) poses a significant threat to banana production worldwide, particularly in regions dependent on banana cultivation for food security and income. In this study, we present a comprehensive mathematical modeling framework to analyze the transmission dynamics and control of Banana Bunchy Top Disease (BBTD). We derived the basic reproduction number and performed a stability analysis of the disease-free equilibrium point. To mitigate the spread of BBTV, we incorporated three time-dependent control strategies: defense priming, screening of latently infected plants and roguing. Using Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle, we formulated and solved the associated optimal control problem using the fourth-order Runge-Kutta method. The efficiency analysis results showed that the combination of defense priming, screening, and roguing was the most efficient strategy for eliminating BBTV. Furthermore, cost-effectiveness analysis revealed that the combination of defense priming and roguing was the optimal control strategy to eliminate BBTD at a lower cost. These findings provide actionable insights for policymakers and agricultural practitioners advocating enhanced screening, defense priming, and timely roguing to mitigate the spread of Banana Bunchy Top Disease.