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<p>The concept of Grand Convergence in global health by 2035 aims to achieve equitable health outcomes across countries, sparking ongoing debate and discussion. To assess progress toward this goal, we examine the convergence of the infant mortality rate (IMR), a critical indicator of a country’s health status. Using data from 197 countries spanning 1985 to 2022, we apply a nonlinear factor dynamic club convergence model. Our findings reveal that countries are not universally converging toward a low IMR, indicating that the Grand Convergence of IMR is not being realised. Instead, we find evidence of club convergence, where countries form six distinct convergence clubs, each representing different IMR equilibrium levels. This suggests the presence of multiple convergence equilibria rather than unique global convergence. Furthermore, the divergence between the Global North and the Global South is intensifying. Countries in the Global South with high IMR are clustering together, forming clubs with high relative IMR equilibrium, whereas countries in the Global North are converging within clubs characterised by low IMR. Using ordered logit regression, we identify key factors influencing IMR convergence club formation. Our results indicate that per capita income, total fertility rate, access to safe drinking water, and the prevalence of undernourishment play significant roles in shaping convergence patterns. Based on these findings, we provide crucial policy insights to address persistent global health disparities.</p>

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Empirical Evidence on the Grand Convergence of Infant Mortality Rates

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年10月15日

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  • Jeet Saha,
  • Zafar Iqubal

摘要

The concept of Grand Convergence in global health by 2035 aims to achieve equitable health outcomes across countries, sparking ongoing debate and discussion. To assess progress toward this goal, we examine the convergence of the infant mortality rate (IMR), a critical indicator of a country’s health status. Using data from 197 countries spanning 1985 to 2022, we apply a nonlinear factor dynamic club convergence model. Our findings reveal that countries are not universally converging toward a low IMR, indicating that the Grand Convergence of IMR is not being realised. Instead, we find evidence of club convergence, where countries form six distinct convergence clubs, each representing different IMR equilibrium levels. This suggests the presence of multiple convergence equilibria rather than unique global convergence. Furthermore, the divergence between the Global North and the Global South is intensifying. Countries in the Global South with high IMR are clustering together, forming clubs with high relative IMR equilibrium, whereas countries in the Global North are converging within clubs characterised by low IMR. Using ordered logit regression, we identify key factors influencing IMR convergence club formation. Our results indicate that per capita income, total fertility rate, access to safe drinking water, and the prevalence of undernourishment play significant roles in shaping convergence patterns. Based on these findings, we provide crucial policy insights to address persistent global health disparities.