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<p>Climate change intensifies extreme weather events, threatening agriculture, water security, and socio-economic stability in semi-arid regions. This study projects 25 extreme climate indices for the Moghan Plain, Iran, using 1993–2014 data as baseline and bias-corrected outputs from eight CMIP6 models under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2021–2100. The three best-performing models (CanESM5, INM-CM5-0, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR) were selected for the ensemble based on superior skill scores. Trends were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, and uncertainty was quantified via bootstrap resampling. Results indicate a shift toward a hotter, more hydrologically stressed climate. Precipitation extremes intensify but become episodic: heavy rainfall indices (Rx1day + 5–6&#xa0;mm, Rx5day + 1–3&#xa0;mm, R95p + 7–8&#xa0;mm, R99p + 2–3&#xa0;mm, SDII, R10mm, R20mm) increase, while consecutive wet days (CWD) decline slightly (from 3.55 to 3.37–3.33 days/year) and consecutive dry days (CDD) lengthen significantly (from 60.77 to 61.72–66.15 days/year). Temperature extremes show strong warming: warm indices (TXx + 1.8 to + 4.5&#xa0;°C, TNx + 1.1 to + 3.0&#xa0;°C, SU25, TR20, TX90p, TN90p) rise markedly, cold indices (FD − 23 to − 36 days, ID, TX10p, TN10p, CSDI) decline sharply, and growing season length (GSL) extends (from 314.9 to 335.6–352.1 days). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) changes marginally. Uncertainty is higher for precipitation than temperature extremes and increases under SSP5-8.5. These shifts heighten risks of heat stress, drought, flash floods, and agro-climatic changes. Region-specific adaptation (e.g., integrated land-water management) is essential to enhance resilience in this vulnerable agricultural region.</p>

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Projection of extreme temperature and precipitation indices in the Moghan Plain, Iran, under CMIP6 scenarios

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2026年4月25日

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  • Pouya Allahverdipour,
  • Yagob Dinpashoh

摘要

Climate change intensifies extreme weather events, threatening agriculture, water security, and socio-economic stability in semi-arid regions. This study projects 25 extreme climate indices for the Moghan Plain, Iran, using 1993–2014 data as baseline and bias-corrected outputs from eight CMIP6 models under SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios for 2021–2100. The three best-performing models (CanESM5, INM-CM5-0, and MPI-ESM1-2-LR) were selected for the ensemble based on superior skill scores. Trends were evaluated with the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, and uncertainty was quantified via bootstrap resampling. Results indicate a shift toward a hotter, more hydrologically stressed climate. Precipitation extremes intensify but become episodic: heavy rainfall indices (Rx1day + 5–6 mm, Rx5day + 1–3 mm, R95p + 7–8 mm, R99p + 2–3 mm, SDII, R10mm, R20mm) increase, while consecutive wet days (CWD) decline slightly (from 3.55 to 3.37–3.33 days/year) and consecutive dry days (CDD) lengthen significantly (from 60.77 to 61.72–66.15 days/year). Temperature extremes show strong warming: warm indices (TXx + 1.8 to + 4.5 °C, TNx + 1.1 to + 3.0 °C, SU25, TR20, TX90p, TN90p) rise markedly, cold indices (FD − 23 to − 36 days, ID, TX10p, TN10p, CSDI) decline sharply, and growing season length (GSL) extends (from 314.9 to 335.6–352.1 days). Diurnal temperature range (DTR) changes marginally. Uncertainty is higher for precipitation than temperature extremes and increases under SSP5-8.5. These shifts heighten risks of heat stress, drought, flash floods, and agro-climatic changes. Region-specific adaptation (e.g., integrated land-water management) is essential to enhance resilience in this vulnerable agricultural region.