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<p>Although there has been extensive scientific work on the impacts of major volcanic eruptions on global and regional climates, the Middle East remains a knowledge gap in this regard. Our aim is to establish surface air temperature responses across the Middle East and easternmost Mediterranean basin, following three major tropical volcanic eruptions: Krakatau (1883), Agung (1963) and Pinatubo (1991). This study utilizes available data from CMIP6 climate models to analyze climatic responses to these eruptions. The longest-lasting cool anomalies, persisting for six years, followed the Krakatau eruption. The most pronounced post-Krakatau cooling occurred in 1884, with a regionally averaged temperature departure of -0.74&#xa0;°C, relative to a mean baseline temperature. In contrast, the Agung eruption caused a regionally averaged temperature departure of -0.59&#xa0;°C in 1964, but its cooling effect was more temporally limited, lasting approximately 3½ years. Air temperatures over the Middle East were depressed for over a decade following the Pinatubo eruption, but this may have been due to additional unidentified climatic factors. This extended cool period was marked by the strongest regionally averaged post-volcanic temperature departure of -0.76&#xa0;°C, recorded in 1992. Our findings highlight that the extent of such cooling varied across the Middle East, with the most pronounced cooling occurring at higher elevations and latitudes, while southern regions (especially the Arabian Peninsula) experienced more moderate cooling. This study underscores that a combination of factors, including regional climate dynamics, have likely played a significant role in determining the intensity and duration of cooling associated with major volcanic eruptions, in the Middle East.</p>

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Impact of major tropical volcanic eruptions on air temperatures in the Middle East

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年7月7日

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  • Gholamreza Roshan,
  • Abdolazim Ghanghermeh,
  • Stefan W. Grab,
  • Ecmel Erlat,
  • Murat Türkeş

摘要

Although there has been extensive scientific work on the impacts of major volcanic eruptions on global and regional climates, the Middle East remains a knowledge gap in this regard. Our aim is to establish surface air temperature responses across the Middle East and easternmost Mediterranean basin, following three major tropical volcanic eruptions: Krakatau (1883), Agung (1963) and Pinatubo (1991). This study utilizes available data from CMIP6 climate models to analyze climatic responses to these eruptions. The longest-lasting cool anomalies, persisting for six years, followed the Krakatau eruption. The most pronounced post-Krakatau cooling occurred in 1884, with a regionally averaged temperature departure of -0.74 °C, relative to a mean baseline temperature. In contrast, the Agung eruption caused a regionally averaged temperature departure of -0.59 °C in 1964, but its cooling effect was more temporally limited, lasting approximately 3½ years. Air temperatures over the Middle East were depressed for over a decade following the Pinatubo eruption, but this may have been due to additional unidentified climatic factors. This extended cool period was marked by the strongest regionally averaged post-volcanic temperature departure of -0.76 °C, recorded in 1992. Our findings highlight that the extent of such cooling varied across the Middle East, with the most pronounced cooling occurring at higher elevations and latitudes, while southern regions (especially the Arabian Peninsula) experienced more moderate cooling. This study underscores that a combination of factors, including regional climate dynamics, have likely played a significant role in determining the intensity and duration of cooling associated with major volcanic eruptions, in the Middle East.