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<p>This study assesses rainfall variability, long-term rainfall trends, and drought events within the Tanzanian part of the Kagera River sub-basin. Rainfall variability was evaluated using the coefficient of variation (CV) while trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope (SS) estimator. Meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts were analyzed through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), respectively. The results revealed a prevalence of high temporal variability in monthly rainfall, except for March and April, which exhibited moderate variability. Moreover, the wet seasons: March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND), predominantly showed low variability. On the other hand, the trend analysis of monthly rainfall revealed mixed spatial and temporal patterns. However, January, February, March, April, May, and August through December exhibited a prominent upward trend ranging from 3.2&#xa0;mm/decade to 10.6&#xa0;mm/decade, while June and July generally showed a negative trend ranging from − 0.2&#xa0;mm/decade to -1.1&#xa0;mm/decade. Additionally, the seasonal and annual rainfall exhibited a predominantly upward trend between 0.8&#xa0;mm/decade and 6.7&#xa0;mm/decade. The drought analysis revealed several instances of severe and extreme drought, with prolonged drought events becoming more apparent over 6-month and 12-month timescales. The SSI and SSMI showed limited correlation with SPI at shorter time scales (1-month and 3-month) but demonstrated a notably stronger relationship at longer time scales (6-month and 12-month). Decision-makers should consider these findings to inform policies and strategies for water management, agriculture, and climate adaptation in the sub-basin.</p>

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Assessing rainfall variability, long-term trends, and drought incidences in the Tanzania part of the Kagera River sub-basin

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月17日

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  • Nickson Tibangayuka,
  • Deogratias M. M. Mulungu,
  • Fides Izdori

摘要

This study assesses rainfall variability, long-term rainfall trends, and drought events within the Tanzanian part of the Kagera River sub-basin. Rainfall variability was evaluated using the coefficient of variation (CV) while trends were analyzed using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope (SS) estimator. Meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural droughts were analyzed through the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Standardized Streamflow Index (SSI), and Standardized Soil Moisture Index (SSMI), respectively. The results revealed a prevalence of high temporal variability in monthly rainfall, except for March and April, which exhibited moderate variability. Moreover, the wet seasons: March-April-May (MAM) and October-November-December (OND), predominantly showed low variability. On the other hand, the trend analysis of monthly rainfall revealed mixed spatial and temporal patterns. However, January, February, March, April, May, and August through December exhibited a prominent upward trend ranging from 3.2 mm/decade to 10.6 mm/decade, while June and July generally showed a negative trend ranging from − 0.2 mm/decade to -1.1 mm/decade. Additionally, the seasonal and annual rainfall exhibited a predominantly upward trend between 0.8 mm/decade and 6.7 mm/decade. The drought analysis revealed several instances of severe and extreme drought, with prolonged drought events becoming more apparent over 6-month and 12-month timescales. The SSI and SSMI showed limited correlation with SPI at shorter time scales (1-month and 3-month) but demonstrated a notably stronger relationship at longer time scales (6-month and 12-month). Decision-makers should consider these findings to inform policies and strategies for water management, agriculture, and climate adaptation in the sub-basin.