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<p>Assessing the vulnerability of land use/land cover (LULC) categories to flooding is an essential measure in environmental and natural planning on a global scale, which plays a significant role in managing flood damage. In this work, a new form of Vlse Kriterijumsk Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR), Combinative Distance based Assessment (CODAS), Local Weighted Linear Combination (LWLC) and Weight of evidence (WOE) models in combination with Modified-Fuzzy-Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (M-F-DEMATEL)), Fuzzy Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (F-SWARA) and Cellular Automata (CA) were developed for evaluation and modeling vulnerability of LULC categories to flood hazard in the Haraz-Gharehsoo basin with high flood occurrence frequency in northern Iran. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and an area under the curve (AUC) of the M-F-DEMATEL-VIKOR, M-F-DEMATEL-CODAS, M-F-DEMATEL-LWLC, F-SWARA-VIKOR, F-SWARA-CODAS, and F-SWARA-LWLC models indicated good to excellent performance, achieving coefficients of 0.926, 0.919, 0.802, 0.916, 0.909, and 0.796, respectively. Additionally, the LULC maps and WOE-CA model revealed a Kappa coefficient of &gt;86%. The analysis of the results demonstrated that more than 60% of the Haraz-Gharehsoo basin and between 50 to 60% of agriculture, bare lands, vegetation, and water bodies and their changes +884.59&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup> (agriculture), +1027.02km<sup>2</sup> (bare lands), −1912.71&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup> (vegetation) and 245.57&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup> (water bodies) in 1999 to 2023, are at the medium to very high flood hazard conditions. Also, 40% of this area includes more than 70% built-up, and its changes (246.67&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>) are at the very low and low flood hazard situations. This trend will be 489.28&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>, 42.96&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>, 79.54&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>, −569.20&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>, and − 48.58&#xa0;km<sup>2</sup>, for agriculture, built-up, bare land, vegetation, and water bodies, respectively, until 2035. This study’s findings have broad applications in crisis management planning, flood damage control, and development of methodology for LULC and flood hazard studies.</p>

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Monitoring and modeling vulnerability of land use changes in the current flood hazard conditions using novel hybrid GIS-based approaches and remote sensing data

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年1月18日

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  • Shadman Darvishi

摘要

Assessing the vulnerability of land use/land cover (LULC) categories to flooding is an essential measure in environmental and natural planning on a global scale, which plays a significant role in managing flood damage. In this work, a new form of Vlse Kriterijumsk Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR), Combinative Distance based Assessment (CODAS), Local Weighted Linear Combination (LWLC) and Weight of evidence (WOE) models in combination with Modified-Fuzzy-Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (M-F-DEMATEL)), Fuzzy Step-Wise Weight Assessment Ratio Analysis (F-SWARA) and Cellular Automata (CA) were developed for evaluation and modeling vulnerability of LULC categories to flood hazard in the Haraz-Gharehsoo basin with high flood occurrence frequency in northern Iran. The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and an area under the curve (AUC) of the M-F-DEMATEL-VIKOR, M-F-DEMATEL-CODAS, M-F-DEMATEL-LWLC, F-SWARA-VIKOR, F-SWARA-CODAS, and F-SWARA-LWLC models indicated good to excellent performance, achieving coefficients of 0.926, 0.919, 0.802, 0.916, 0.909, and 0.796, respectively. Additionally, the LULC maps and WOE-CA model revealed a Kappa coefficient of >86%. The analysis of the results demonstrated that more than 60% of the Haraz-Gharehsoo basin and between 50 to 60% of agriculture, bare lands, vegetation, and water bodies and their changes +884.59 km2 (agriculture), +1027.02km2 (bare lands), −1912.71 km2 (vegetation) and 245.57 km2 (water bodies) in 1999 to 2023, are at the medium to very high flood hazard conditions. Also, 40% of this area includes more than 70% built-up, and its changes (246.67 km2) are at the very low and low flood hazard situations. This trend will be 489.28 km2, 42.96 km2, 79.54 km2, −569.20 km2, and − 48.58 km2, for agriculture, built-up, bare land, vegetation, and water bodies, respectively, until 2035. This study’s findings have broad applications in crisis management planning, flood damage control, and development of methodology for LULC and flood hazard studies.