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<p>The impact of climate change on the agrarian household’s desire for migration, planning, and decisions in the coastal region of the Indian Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (ISBR) has not been studied earlier due to their remote location. Using a pre-structured survey schedule and a multi-stage stratified random sampling method, 180 respondents from 12 villages across different adaptation zones were surveyed. Migration determinants were measured through a three-stage binary logistic regression and mixed methods, including six focus group discussions. This study fills a gap in understanding how environmental events’ type, frequency, and extent influence migration decisions. The Sustainable Livelihood Security Approach (SLSA) was uniquely applied to assess perceptions regarding the determinants of out-migration and climate change. Results show that increased summer temperatures and cyclone frequency over the past 15&#xa0;years are significant concerns. Key factors influencing migration patterns include primary education, occupation, work status, serious illness in the family, off-farm income, family type, credit access, urban life aspirations, social group (S.C. and O.B.C.-A), arable and irrigated land, social networks, flood, drought, and precipitation trends. The findings provide insights into potential policy instruments for mitigating displacement. This approach can be applied in other parts of India and in developing countries at various scales.</p>

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Understanding Climate Change Perception and Migration Determinants Among the Agrarian Community in the Coastal Region of Sundarban Biosphere Reserve in India: A Sustainable Livelihood Security Approach

  • 期刊论文

  • 发表日期：

    2025年9月9日

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  • Shibu Das

摘要

The impact of climate change on the agrarian household’s desire for migration, planning, and decisions in the coastal region of the Indian Sundarban Biosphere Reserve (ISBR) has not been studied earlier due to their remote location. Using a pre-structured survey schedule and a multi-stage stratified random sampling method, 180 respondents from 12 villages across different adaptation zones were surveyed. Migration determinants were measured through a three-stage binary logistic regression and mixed methods, including six focus group discussions. This study fills a gap in understanding how environmental events’ type, frequency, and extent influence migration decisions. The Sustainable Livelihood Security Approach (SLSA) was uniquely applied to assess perceptions regarding the determinants of out-migration and climate change. Results show that increased summer temperatures and cyclone frequency over the past 15 years are significant concerns. Key factors influencing migration patterns include primary education, occupation, work status, serious illness in the family, off-farm income, family type, credit access, urban life aspirations, social group (S.C. and O.B.C.-A), arable and irrigated land, social networks, flood, drought, and precipitation trends. The findings provide insights into potential policy instruments for mitigating displacement. This approach can be applied in other parts of India and in developing countries at various scales.